Preserved Herring Market

The global herring market is expected to continue to grow over the next eight years, with forecasted increases in consumption, production, imports, and exports. In 2022, preserved herring consumption dropped slightly, but the market is projected to reach 5.9M tons by 2030. China is the largest consumer and producer of preserved herring, with other major players including India, the United States, and Japan. Poland leads in herring exports, while Germany is the largest importer. Price trends show slight fluctuations, with the average export price increasing in 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for herrings (prepared or preserved) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $31B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Herrings (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, global preserved herring consumption dropped slightly to 4.9M tons, declining by -1.6% against 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 5.3M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global preserved herring market size reduced slightly to $22.2B in 2022, declining by -2.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $24.8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (981K tons) remains the largest preserved herring consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 20% of total volume. Moreover, preserved herring consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (371K tons), threefold. The United States (271K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.5% share.

In China, preserved herring consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+5.0% per year) and the United States (-2.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($3.9B), Japan ($2.4B) and India ($1.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 35% of the global market. The United States, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Germany and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +6.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of preserved herring per capita consumption in 2022 were Poland (2,190 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (1,200 kg per 1000 persons) and Turkey (1,147 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +4.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Herrings (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, approx. 4.9M tons of herrings (prepared or preserved) were produced worldwide; declining by -1.6% against 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 26%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 5.3M tons. From 2018 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, preserved herring production contracted modestly to $22.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 30%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $25.1B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (982K tons) remains the largest preserved herring producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 20% of total volume. Moreover, preserved herring production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (371K tons), threefold. The United States (259K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.2% share.

In China, preserved herring production increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+5.0% per year) and the United States (-2.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Herrings (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, purchases abroad of herrings (prepared or preserved) decreased by -16.6% to 145K tons, falling for the second year in a row after six years of growth. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 6.4% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 181K tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, preserved herring imports declined sharply to $445M in 2022. In general, imports showed a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 7.7%. Global imports peaked at $551M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (47K tons), distantly followed by Poland (27K tons), the United States (12K tons) and Sweden (9.2K tons) were the main importers of herrings (prepared or preserved), together achieving 65% of total imports. Denmark (5.2K tons), Austria (3.3K tons), Romania (3.3K tons), the Netherlands (2.7K tons), Finland (2.4K tons), the Czech Republic (2.4K tons), the UK (2.3K tons) and Estonia (2.2K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +13.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($153M) constitutes the largest market for imported herrings (prepared or preserved) worldwide, comprising 34% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Poland ($60M), with a 13% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Germany was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (-1.4% per year) and the United States (+0.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average preserved herring import price stood at $3,063 per ton in 2022, approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a mild shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 7.8% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $3,667 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($4,273 per ton), while Sweden ($1,563 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Estonia (+0.5%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Herrings (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, overseas shipments of herrings (prepared or preserved) decreased by -15.7% to 147K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. Over the period under review, exports recorded a slight downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 9% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 183K tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, preserved herring exports shrank to $470M in 2022. In general, exports saw a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 7.8% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $639M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Poland was the largest exporter of herrings (prepared or preserved) in the world, with the volume of exports recording 51K tons, which was near 34% of total exports in 2022. Denmark (25K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Norway (16K tons), Germany (11K tons), Canada (8.5K tons) and Lithuania (7.3K tons). All these countries together took near 47% share of total exports. Sweden (5.3K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

Poland experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of herrings (prepared or preserved). At the same time, Lithuania (+1.7%) and Canada (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lithuania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +1.7% from 2012-2022. Denmark and Norway experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Sweden (-3.3%) and Germany (-7.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Denmark (+3.3 p.p.) and Poland (+2.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-7.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Poland ($165M) remains the largest preserved herring supplier worldwide, comprising 35% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Denmark ($64M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with an 8.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Poland stood at -2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Denmark (-2.9% per year) and Germany (-8.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average preserved herring export price stood at $3,195 per ton in 2022, increasing by 2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a slight descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 7.8%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $3,842 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Lithuania ($4,039 per ton), while Norway ($2,246 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+1.3%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform