Tobacco Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global tobacco market from 2012 to 2030. It covers key aspects such as consumption, production, imports, and exports, with detailed insights on market trends, key countries involved, and different types of tobacco products. The data reveals that while global consumption reduced slightly in 2022, the market is expected to experience an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The article also highlights the highest consuming and producing countries, as well as the most popular types of tobacco products in the market. Overall, the analysis offers valuable information for stakeholders in the tobacco industry to understand the market dynamics and make informed decisions.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for tobacco worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $61.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tobacco (Smoking Tobacco, Chewing Tobacco, Snuff)

In 2022, global consumption of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) reduced modestly to 4.3M tons, approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 4.3%. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 4.6M tons. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global tobacco market size dropped to $40B in 2022, waning by -1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $41.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (665K tons), India (394K tons) and the United States (351K tons), with a combined 33% share of global consumption. Turkey, Malawi, Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Italy and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +14.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($7.1B), China ($4B) and India ($3.5B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 36% share of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +13.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of tobacco per capita consumption was registered in Malawi (10 kg per person), followed by Turkey (3 kg per person), Italy (1.3 kg per person) and the United States (1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of tobacco was estimated at 0.5 kg per person.

In Malawi, tobacco per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+13.0% per year) and Italy (+2.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Tobacco (Smoking Tobacco, Chewing Tobacco, Snuff)

In 2022, the amount of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) produced worldwide was estimated at 4.4M tons, flattening at the year before. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 4.4% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 4.6M tons. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, tobacco production amounted to $39.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 12%. Global production peaked at $41.5B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (666K tons), India (448K tons) and the United States (354K tons), with a combined 34% share of global production. Turkey, Malawi, Russia, Pakistan, Nigeria, France, Indonesia, Germany, Italy and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +16.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Tobacco (Smoking Tobacco, Chewing Tobacco, Snuff)

After four years of growth, overseas purchases of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) decreased by -8% to 646K tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 7.7%. Global imports peaked at 702K tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, tobacco imports dropped sharply to $6.7B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed noticeable growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 28%. Global imports peaked at $11.9B in 2021, and then fell rapidly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (58K tons), followed by Poland (37K tons), Germany (37K tons), Iran (34K tons), Turkey (33K tons) and Belgium (32K tons) were the main importers of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff), together creating 36% of total imports. Iraq (20K tons), Algeria (19K tons), Russia (14K tons), Romania (14K tons), Kuwait (14K tons), Spain (14K tons) and Indonesia (12K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Iraq (with a CAGR of +28.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($617M), Algeria ($344M) and Spain ($325M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 19% share of global imports. Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Poland, Belgium, Turkey, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, Romania and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Kuwait, with a CAGR of +36.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (344K tons) was the major type of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff), achieving 53% of total imports. It was distantly followed by tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" (127K tons), tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" (114K tons) and tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (61K tons), together generating a 47% share of total imports.

Imports of tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (+8.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.5% from 2012-2022. Tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" (-3.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (+10 p.p.) and tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (+4.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" and tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" saw its share reduced by -5.1% and -10% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion ($4.2B) constitutes the largest type of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) imported worldwide, comprising 62% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" ($1.7B), with a 25% share of global imports. It was followed by tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted", with a 7.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion imports amounted to +3.1%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" (+2.6% per year) and tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" (-2.3% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The average tobacco import price stood at $10,430 per ton in 2022, waning by -38.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 28% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $16,948 per ton in 2021, and then contracted rapidly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" ($13,205 per ton), while the price for tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" ($4,181 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" (+3.6%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

The average tobacco import price stood at $10,430 per ton in 2022, falling by -38.5% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 28% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $16,948 per ton in 2021, and then contracted dramatically in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($23,931 per ton), while Turkey ($5,073 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kuwait (+8.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Tobacco (Smoking Tobacco, Chewing Tobacco, Snuff)

For the seventh year in a row, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff), which increased by less than 0.1% to 700K tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 8.4% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, tobacco exports reduced dramatically to $7.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a pronounced increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 23%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $10.5B in 2021, and then shrank notably in the following year.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Germany (85K tons), the United Arab Emirates (76K tons), the Netherlands (61K tons), India (59K tons), Poland (45K tons), France (44K tons), Belgium (32K tons), Russia (28K tons), Brazil (25K tons), Turkey (24K tons), the Philippines (19K tons) and Serbia (16K tons), together recording 73% of total export. The United States (14K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +36.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest tobacco supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($925M), the Netherlands ($738M) and the United Arab Emirates ($607M), together accounting for 32% of global exports. Poland, India, Belgium, Serbia, France, Turkey, Russia, the United States, the Philippines and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Serbia, with a CAGR of +51.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion represented the key type of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 343K tons, which was approx. 49% of total exports in 2022. Tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" (171K tons) held a 24% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" (19%) and tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (7.8%).

Exports of tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion (+14.0%) and tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" (+3.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +14.0% from 2012-2022. Tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion and tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion increased by +4.8 and +3.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest types of exported tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) were tobacco; smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion ($4.1B), tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" ($2.1B) and tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" ($555M), together comprising 94% of global exports. Tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 5.6%.

Tobacco; smoking, water pipe tobacco as specified in subheading note 1 to this chapter, whether or not containing tobacco substitutes in any proportion, with a CAGR of +13.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exported products over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average tobacco export price amounted to $10,124 per ton, with a decrease of -32.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $14,975 per ton in 2021, and then fell sharply in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" ($12,175 per ton), while the average price for exports of tobacco; "homogenised" or "reconstituted" ($4,236 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by tobacco; other than "homogenised" or "reconstituted" or "smoking" (+2.2%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average tobacco export price stood at $10,124 per ton in 2022, declining by -32.4% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $14,975 per ton in 2021, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Poland ($13,477 per ton), while Brazil ($3,880 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Serbia (+21.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform