Papaya Market

The global papaya market is projected to see continued growth in consumption, production, imports, and exports over the next decade. India leads in both consumption and production, while Mexico dominates in exports. The United States is a major player in imports. Prices, volumes, and trends for key countries are analyzed in depth.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for papayas worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 17M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Papayas

In 2022, consumption of papayas decreased by -1.8% to 14M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after two years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 6.6%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 14M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global papaya market value totaled $13.1B in 2022, leveling off at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $15.1B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

India (5.3M tons) remains the largest papaya consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, papaya consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the Dominican Republic (1.3M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Indonesia (1.1M tons), with a 7.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the Dominican Republic (+9.5% per year) and Indonesia (+1.9% per year).

In value terms, India ($2.5B), Nigeria ($1.5B) and Brazil ($1.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 40% of the global market. The Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Mexico, China and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +10.1%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of papaya per capita consumption was registered in the Dominican Republic (116 kg per person), followed by Mexico (7.1 kg per person), Brazil (5 kg per person) and Nigeria (4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of papaya was estimated at 1.8 kg per person.

In the Dominican Republic, papaya per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +8.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (+3.3% per year) and Brazil (-4.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Papayas

In 2022, production of papayas decreased by -1.9% to 14M tons, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 6.5% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 14M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, papaya production rose modestly to $12.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a tangible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -29.5% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $17.8B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

India (5.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of papaya production, comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, papaya production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the Dominican Republic (1.3M tons), fourfold. Mexico (1.1M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.2% share.

In India, papaya production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Dominican Republic (+9.4% per year) and Mexico (+4.8% per year).

Yield

The global average papaya yield contracted to 28 tons per ha in 2022, dropping by -7.6% compared with 2021. Overall, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 2.4% against the previous year. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 31 tons per ha. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the average papaya yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global papaya harvested area rose significantly to 503K ha in 2022, picking up by 6.2% on 2021. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 6.3% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports

World Imports of Papayas

In 2022, approx. 374K tons of papayas were imported worldwide; increasing by 1.9% on 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 13%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, papaya imports reduced to $363M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $384M in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports By Country

The United States prevails in imports structure, finishing at 213K tons, which was approx. 57% of total imports in 2022. Singapore (20K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Canada (19K tons) and El Salvador (19K tons). All these countries together took approx. 15% share of total imports. The United Arab Emirates (15K tons), Portugal (12K tons), Germany (10K tons), South Africa (9.1K tons) and Spain (6.8K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, South Africa (+50.1%), the United Arab Emirates (+16.5%), Portugal (+10.1%), El Salvador (+6.9%), Germany (+4.0%), Spain (+2.6%) and Canada (+2.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Africa emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +50.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Singapore (-4.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United Arab Emirates (+2.8 p.p.), South Africa (+2.4 p.p.) and the United States (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Singapore (-7.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($135M) constitutes the largest market for imported papayas worldwide, comprising 37% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Portugal ($30M), with an 8.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with an 8.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States totaled +3.4%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Portugal (+10.2% per year) and Germany (+3.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average papaya import price amounted to $971 per ton, shrinking by -7.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 7.6%. Global import price peaked at $1,082 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,962 per ton), while El Salvador ($215 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore (+6.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Papayas

After three years of growth, shipments abroad of papayas decreased by -0.3% to 396K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +57.7% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 32% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 397K tons, leveling off in the following year.

In value terms, papaya exports fell to $321M in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at $330M in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Mexico (201K tons) was the major exporter of papayas, achieving 51% of total exports. Guatemala (51K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 13% share, followed by Brazil (10%) and Sri Lanka (4.6%). Malaysia (17K tons), the United States (13K tons), India (9.4K tons), China (8K tons) and Spain (6.2K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to papaya exports from Mexico stood at +6.4%. At the same time, Sri Lanka (+20.0%), Spain (+14.3%), Guatemala (+8.6%), Brazil (+4.3%) and China (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sri Lanka emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2012-2022. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Malaysia (-2.4%) and India (-6.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Mexico (+8.1 p.p.), Guatemala (+4.1 p.p.) and Sri Lanka (+3.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Malaysia and India saw its share reduced by -4.1% and -4.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mexico ($124M) remains the largest papaya supplier worldwide, comprising 39% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($50M), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Guatemala, with a 7.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Mexico amounted to +7.0%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Brazil (+3.2% per year) and Guatemala (+11.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average papaya export price stood at $809 per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -2.7% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $1,156 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($1,920 per ton), while Malaysia ($331 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+14.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform