Chestnut Market

The global chestnut market is expected to experience a steady rise in both consumption and value over the next eight years, with China leading the way as both the largest producer and consumer of chestnuts. Italy, Vietnam, and China are key players in the international chestnut trade, with varying trends in import and export volumes and prices observed over the past decade. Overall, the market shows a positive trend in production and consumption, with fluctuations in global trade patterns impacting prices and market dynamics.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for chestnuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Chestnuts

In 2022, the amount of chestnuts consumed worldwide rose markedly to 2.1M tons, growing by 8.9% compared with the previous year. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global chestnut market size rose sharply to $5B in 2022, growing by 7.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $5.8B. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of chestnut consumption was China (1.5M tons), accounting for 72% of total volume. Moreover, chestnut consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Spain (174K tons), ninefold. Bolivia (83K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 3.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Spain (+33.8% per year) and Bolivia (+0.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($3.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Spain ($377M). It was followed by Italy.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at -2.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Spain (+32.2% per year) and Italy (-2.2% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of chestnut per capita consumption in 2022 were Bolivia (6.9 kg per person), Spain (3.7 kg per person) and Greece (3.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +33.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Chestnuts

In 2022, the amount of chestnuts produced worldwide expanded notably to 2.1M tons, with an increase of 8.4% on 2021. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, production reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, chestnut production contracted to $4.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a slight decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $6B. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of chestnut production was China (1.6M tons), comprising approx. 73% of total volume. Moreover, chestnut production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Spain (174K tons), ninefold. Bolivia (83K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.9% share.

In China, chestnut production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+27.5% per year) and Bolivia (+0.9% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average chestnut yield totaled 3.9 tons per ha, surging by 8.4% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the yield reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of chestnuts totaled 548K ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the harvested area increased by 3.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to chestnut production attained the peak figure at 555K ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Chestnuts

After three years of decline, purchases abroad of chestnuts increased by 3.7% to 90K tons in 2022. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 110K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, chestnut imports fell to $245M in 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 24%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $334M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Italy (18K tons), distantly followed by Vietnam (7.8K tons), Thailand (6.5K tons), China (5.3K tons) and France (5.2K tons) represented the largest importers of chestnuts, together creating 48% of total imports. Taiwan (Chinese) (3.7K tons), Germany (3.2K tons), Spain (3.1K tons), the United States (3K tons), South Korea (2.7K tons), Switzerland (2.6K tons), Portugal (2.2K tons) and Austria (2.1K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of chestnuts. At the same time, Vietnam (+74.0%), Portugal (+5.9%), France (+5.2%), Spain (+4.4%), Thailand (+3.6%), South Korea (+3.0%), Germany (+2.8%) and Austria (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +74.0% from 2012-2022. Switzerland and Taiwan (Chinese) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-1.6%) and China (-6.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Vietnam, France and Thailand increased by +8.6, +2.1 and +1.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Italy ($50M) constitutes the largest market for imported chestnuts worldwide, comprising 20% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Vietnam ($17M), with a 6.8% share of global imports. It was followed by Thailand, with a 6.4% share.

In Italy, chestnut imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Vietnam (+66.4% per year) and Thailand (+2.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average chestnut import price stood at $2,731 per ton in 2022, shrinking by -11.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 20%. Global import price peaked at $3,078 per ton in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($5,583 per ton), while South Korea ($1,650 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+0.6%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Chestnuts

In 2022, shipments abroad of chestnuts decreased by -6.2% to 92K tons, falling for the third consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 118K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, chestnut exports shrank to $248M in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a mild shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 18%. The global exports peaked at $358M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

China represented the main exporter of chestnuts in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 37K tons, which was approx. 40% of total exports in 2022. Turkey (14K tons) took a 15% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (13%) and South Korea (5.6%). Greece (4.1K tons), Spain (3.6K tons), Portugal (3.3K tons), Chile (2.9K tons), the Dominican Republic (2.2K tons) and France (2.2K tons) took a little share of total exports.

China experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of chestnuts. At the same time, Greece (+17.1%), Chile (+13.0%), Turkey (+9.7%), the Dominican Republic (+5.9%) and Italy (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Greece emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +17.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, France (-1.2%), South Korea (-6.6%), Spain (-7.6%) and Portugal (-10.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Turkey (+9 p.p.), Greece (+3.5 p.p.), Chile (+2.2 p.p.) and China (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Spain, South Korea and Portugal saw its share reduced by -4.8%, -5.7% and -6.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest chestnut supplying countries worldwide were China ($81M), Italy ($59M) and Turkey ($34M), together accounting for 70% of global exports. Spain, South Korea, Portugal, France, Greece, Chile and the Dominican Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

Among the main exporting countries, Chile, with a CAGR of +16.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average chestnut export price stood at $2,695 per ton in 2022, dropping by -7.8% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a mild descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 20% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $3,031 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($4,794 per ton), while the Dominican Republic ($770 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Chile (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform