Cereal Flour Market

The article discusses the trends in the global cereal flour market from 2022 to 2030. It forecasts a steady increase in market performance, with consumption expected to grow at a CAGR of +2.3% and reach 487M tons by 2030. The market value is also projected to rise to $319B by the end of the period. China is the largest consumer and producer of cereal flours, while Turkey leads in exports. Imports of cereal flours saw a recent increase, with Afghanistan and Iraq being the largest importers. Prices and production levels also saw fluctuations over the years, with Turkey being a key player in the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cereal flours worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 487M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $319B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cereal Flours

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was decline in consumption of cereal flours, when its volume decreased by -3.1% to 405M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 418M tons in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

The global cereal flour market size shrank to $228.6B in 2022, falling by -4.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $238.6B, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of cereal flour consumption was China (76M tons), comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, cereal flour consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (24M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Indonesia (18M tons), with a 4.5% share.

In China, cereal flour consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.1% per year) and Indonesia (+2.9% per year).

In value terms, the largest cereal flour markets worldwide were China ($35.8B), Turkey ($21.2B) and India ($12.2B), with a combined 30% share of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +5.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cereal flour per capita consumption in 2022 were Turkey (81 kg per person), Japan (80 kg per person) and Russia (79 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +3.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cereal Flours

After three years of growth, production of cereal flours decreased by -3.4% to 404M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.7% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 418M tons, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

In value terms, cereal flour production reduced to $234.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 18%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $286.2B. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (76M tons) remains the largest cereal flour producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, cereal flour production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (25M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Indonesia (18M tons), with a 4.5% share.

In China, cereal flour production increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+4.3% per year) and Indonesia (+3.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cereal Flours

In 2022, overseas purchases of cereal flours were finally on the rise to reach 14M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 13% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 16M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cereal flour imports soared to $7.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Afghanistan (2.2M tons), followed by Iraq (1,267K tons) and the Netherlands (676K tons) represented the largest importers of cereal flours, together generating 29% of total imports. The following importers - the United States (590K tons), Yemen (468K tons), Uzbekistan (430K tons), Syrian Arab Republic (416K tons), Somalia (374K tons), France (338K tons), Brazil (283K tons), Ireland (282K tons) and Spain (273K tons) - together made up 25% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Yemen (with a CAGR of +30.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cereal flour importing markets worldwide were Afghanistan ($843M), Iraq ($617M) and the United States ($510M), together comprising 26% of global imports. The Netherlands, Yemen, France, Syrian Arab Republic, Somalia, Ireland, Brazil, Spain and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

Yemen, with a CAGR of +32.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cereal flour import price stood at $543 per ton in 2022, picking up by 18% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($865 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($332 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+13.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cereal Flours

In 2022, shipments abroad of cereal flours decreased by -2.6% to 13M tons, falling for the fifth consecutive year after four years of growth. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 11%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 16M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cereal flour exports totaled $7.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Turkey (3.1M tons), distantly followed by Germany (1,133K tons), Uzbekistan (782K tons) and India (738K tons) represented the key exporters of cereal flours, together generating 43% of total exports. The following exporters - Kazakhstan (534K tons), Argentina (427K tons), Russia (413K tons), Italy (371K tons), Belgium (368K tons), the United States (322K tons), France (254K tons), Mexico (253K tons) and the UK (252K tons) - together made up 24% of total exports.

Exports from Turkey increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Uzbekistan (+30.6%), Russia (+15.6%), India (+11.9%), Italy (+10.1%), Mexico (+9.0%) and Germany (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uzbekistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +30.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the UK (-1.7%), the United States (-2.3%), Belgium (-3.4%), Argentina (-7.0%), France (-8.1%) and Kazakhstan (-13.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Turkey (+8.6 p.p.), Uzbekistan (+5.9 p.p.), India (+3.8 p.p.), Germany (+3.1 p.p.), Russia (+2.4 p.p.) and Italy (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while France, Argentina and Kazakhstan saw its share reduced by -2.5%, -3.3% and -12.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($1.5B) remains the largest cereal flour supplier worldwide, comprising 21% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($597M), with an 8.4% share of global exports. It was followed by Italy, with a 4.7% share.

In Turkey, cereal flour exports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+5.5% per year) and Italy (+13.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cereal flour export price stood at $538 per ton in 2022, rising by 17% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($901 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($315 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform