Whole Fresh Milk Market

The article discusses the global market for whole fresh milk, with insights on consumption, production, import, and export trends. It highlights key statistics such as market volume, value, and consumption patterns. Countries with the highest consumption, production, and import/export volumes are also identified, along with trends in average prices. The data presented spans from 2012 to 2022, with forecasts up to 2030, providing a comprehensive overview of the whole fresh milk market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for whole fresh milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,081M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,019.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Whole Fresh Milk

In 2022, after ten years of growth, there was decline in consumption of whole fresh milk, when its volume decreased by -0.1% to 917M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 918M tons in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

The global whole fresh milk market size stood at $732.7B in 2022, increasing by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the market value increased by 9.6%. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $746B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of whole fresh milk consumption was India (210M tons), accounting for 23% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (102M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Pakistan (59M tons), with a 6.4% share.

In India, whole fresh milk consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+1.1% per year) and Pakistan (+4.5% per year).

In value terms, India ($149B), the United States ($118.9B) and Pakistan ($43.8B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 43% share of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +6.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of whole fresh milk per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (4,190 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (882 kg per person), Germany (412 kg per person) and France (380 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of whole fresh milk was estimated at 1.6 kg per person.

In New Zealand, whole fresh milk per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+2.2% per year) and Germany (+0.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Whole Fresh Milk

In 2022, production of whole fresh milk decreased by -0.2% to 916M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 3.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 918M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a measured expansion of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, whole fresh milk production totaled $720.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 11%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $737.8B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of whole fresh milk production was India (210M tons), accounting for 23% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (102M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Pakistan (59M tons), with a 6.4% share.

In India, whole fresh milk production expanded at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+1.1% per year) and Pakistan (+4.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Whole Fresh Milk

Global whole fresh milk imports was estimated at 10M tons in 2022, increasing by 6.4% against the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 9.3%. Global imports peaked at 11M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, whole fresh milk imports surged to $6.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 22%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (2.6M tons), distantly followed by Belgium (1,027K tons), the Netherlands (1,018K tons), Italy (645K tons), China (634K tons), Ireland (633K tons) and Lithuania (569K tons) were the largest importers of whole fresh milk, together mixing up 68% of total imports. The following importers - the UK (258K tons), Croatia (212K tons) and Romania (205K tons) - each amounted to a 6.5% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole fresh milk imports into Germany stood at +4.8%. At the same time, China (+24.7%), Croatia (+10.5%), the UK (+8.7%), Ireland (+8.3%), the Netherlands (+7.4%), Romania (+5.7%), Lithuania (+3.9%) and Belgium (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Italy (-9.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Germany (+6.3 p.p.), China (+5.3 p.p.), the Netherlands (+4.1 p.p.) and Ireland (+2.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Italy saw its share reduced by -14.7% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($1.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported whole fresh milk worldwide, comprising 22% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($602M), with a 9.2% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 8.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Germany amounted to +7.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+24.4% per year) and the Netherlands (+7.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average whole fresh milk import price stood at $628 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $636 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($950 per ton), while Belgium ($431 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Whole Fresh Milk

In 2022, approx. 9.6M tons of whole fresh milk were exported worldwide; falling by -3.1% on the previous year's figure. In general, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 9.4%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 10M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, whole fresh milk exports totaled $6.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Germany (1,256K tons), Belgium (917K tons), the Czech Republic (869K tons), the UK (760K tons) and Poland (733K tons), together amounting to 47% of total export. France (450K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Austria (434K tons). All these countries together took near 9.2% share of total exports. Latvia (390K tons), the Netherlands (347K tons), Australia (294K tons), Slovenia (286K tons), Hungary (285K tons) and Luxembourg (273K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Australia (with a CAGR of +14.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whole fresh milk supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($819M), Belgium ($548M) and the Czech Republic ($478M), together accounting for 30% of global exports. Poland, the UK, Austria, France, the Netherlands, Latvia, Australia, Slovenia, Hungary and Luxembourg lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

Poland, with a CAGR of +13.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average whole fresh milk export price stood at $648 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Austria ($690 per ton) and the Netherlands ($679 per ton), while Latvia ($536 per ton) and the UK ($543 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Latvia (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform