Sliding Pencil Market

The global sliding pencil market is projected to see an upward consumption trend over the next eight years, with a forecasted growth in market volume and value. While consumption has declined in recent years, countries like the United States, China, and France still dominate the market. China leads in production volume, while the United States tops in imports. On the other hand, China remains the major exporter of sliding pencils. The average export price is on the rise, showing a moderate increase over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for sliding pencil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.9B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $945M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Propelling Or Sliding Pencils

In 2022, approx. 1.6B units of propelling or sliding pencils were consumed worldwide; with a decrease of -1.6% against 2021. In general, consumption continues to indicate a perceptible slump. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 2.1B units in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global sliding pencil market revenue amounted to $731M in 2022, growing by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a noticeable descent. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $970M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (563M units), China (282M units) and France (130M units), together accounting for 61% of global consumption. India, Russia, Japan, Myanmar, Turkey, Mexico and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Myanmar (with a CAGR of +58.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the consumption figures.

In value terms, Russia ($268M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($82M). It was followed by France.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Russia amounted to -3.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.2% per year) and France (+12.4% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of sliding pencil per capita consumption in 2022 were France (1,918 units per 1000 persons), the United States (1,678 units per 1000 persons) and Myanmar (696 units per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Myanmar (with a CAGR of +56.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Propelling Or Sliding Pencils

In 2022, the amount of propelling or sliding pencils produced worldwide fell slightly to 1.5B units, declining by -4.1% on 2021. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a pronounced contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 9.8%. Global production peaked at 2.3B units in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sliding pencil production declined to $680M in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a noticeable contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 8.2%. Global production peaked at $926M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of sliding pencil production was China (837M units), comprising approx. 55% of total volume. Moreover, sliding pencil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (169M units), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by France (145M units), with a 9.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled -3.5%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+2.0% per year) and France (-1.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Propelling Or Sliding Pencils

In 2022, overseas purchases of propelling or sliding pencils were finally on the rise to reach 1B units for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, imports, however, showed a perceptible curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 69% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 1.3B units in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sliding pencil imports expanded sharply to $238M in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $261M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

The United States prevails in imports structure, finishing at 724M units, which was approx. 69% of total imports in 2022. Myanmar (38M units), Turkey (33M units), Mexico (30M units), India (24M units), Brazil (20M units) and South Korea (18M units) took a relatively small share of total imports.

The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of propelling or sliding pencils. At the same time, Myanmar (+58.1%) and India (+11.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Myanmar emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +58.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, South Korea (-4.2%), Turkey (-4.5%), Mexico (-6.6%) and Brazil (-8.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+16 p.p.), Myanmar (+3.6 p.p.) and India (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Mexico and Brazil saw its share reduced by -1.7% and -1.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($73M) constitutes the largest market for imported propelling or sliding pencils worldwide, comprising 31% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mexico ($22M), with a 9.1% share of global imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 6% share.

In the United States, sliding pencil imports contracted by an average annual rate of -2.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (+9.6% per year) and South Korea (+1.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average sliding pencil import price amounted to $0.2 per unit, approximately equating the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, sliding pencil import price increased by +25.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the average import price increased by 77%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $0.3 per unit. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($0.8 per unit), while Myanmar (less than $0.1 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+17.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Propelling Or Sliding Pencils

After three years of decline, shipments abroad of propelling or sliding pencils increased by 9.8% to 971M units in 2022. In general, exports, however, showed a pronounced curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 1.5B units in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sliding pencil exports expanded markedly to $257M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 13%. The global exports peaked at $278M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

China was the major exporter of propelling or sliding pencils in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 569M units, which was near 59% of total exports in 2022. The United States (161M units) took a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by India (8.8%) and Japan (7%). Mexico (27M units) and France (23M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from China decreased at an average annual rate of -4.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+15.6%) and the United States (+7.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Japan (-2.0%), France (-16.0%) and Mexico (-17.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+11 p.p.), India (+7.5 p.p.) and Japan (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while France and Mexico saw its share reduced by -6.3% and -9.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest sliding pencil supplying countries worldwide were China ($70M), Japan ($50M) and Mexico ($47M), with a combined 65% share of global exports. The United States, France and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +9.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average sliding pencil export price stood at $0.3 per unit in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year. In general, export price indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, sliding pencil export price increased by +24.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average export price increased by 100%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $0.3 per unit. From 2016 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($1.7 per unit), while India (less than $0.1 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+30.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform