Rusks and Toasted Bread Market

The global market for rusks, toasted bread, and similar products is projected to see steady growth from 2022 to 2030, with China leading in consumption and production. The United States remains a key player in imports and exports. The article provides detailed insights into consumption trends, production statistics, import and export analysis, and key market players.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $28.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products

After six years of growth, consumption of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products decreased by -0.5% to 8M tons in 2022. Overall, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +48.6% against 2015 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 8M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

The global rusks and toasted bread market size stood at $20.7B in 2022, flattening at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +42.9% against 2015 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

China (1.3M tons) remains the largest rusks and toasted bread consuming country worldwide, accounting for 16% of total volume. Moreover, rusks and toasted bread consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (584K tons), twofold. India (491K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.1% share.

In China, rusks and toasted bread consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+6.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest rusks and toasted bread markets worldwide were Japan ($3.1B), China ($1.7B) and the United States ($1.4B), together accounting for 30% of the global market. India, Italy, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, Russia, Bangladesh and Nigeria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

Among the main consuming countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +30.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of rusks and toasted bread per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (5.2 kg per person), Italy (3.9 kg per person) and Japan (2.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +7.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products

In 2022, production of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products increased by 0.2% to 8M tons, rising for the seventh year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +50.3% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 11%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, rusks and toasted bread production reached $20.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +43.2% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 27%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production By Country

China (1.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of rusks and toasted bread production, comprising approx. 16% of total volume. Moreover, rusks and toasted bread production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (569K tons), twofold. India (492K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.1% share.

In China, rusks and toasted bread production increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+0.2% per year) and India (+6.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products

In 2022, purchases abroad of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products decreased by -10.6% to 377K tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. Over the period under review, total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 10%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 422K tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, rusks and toasted bread imports declined to $1B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +37.1% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $1.1B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports By Country

The United States (40K tons), France (30K tons), Belgium (25K tons), Germany (23K tons), Spain (18K tons), the Netherlands (16K tons), Canada (14K tons), Italy (9.8K tons), the UK (9.3K tons), Kazakhstan (8.3K tons), India (8.2K tons) and the Philippines (7.4K tons) represented roughly 55% of total imports in 2022. Ireland (7.1K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +25.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($179M) constitutes the largest market for imported rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by France ($78M), with a 7.5% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 5.9% share.

In the United States, rusks and toasted bread imports increased at an average annual rate of +16.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: France (+1.9% per year) and Germany (+16.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average rusks and toasted bread import price stood at $2,760 per ton in 2022, increasing by 7.6% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4,506 per ton), while the Philippines ($900 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+10.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Rusks, Toasted Bread and Similar Toasted Products

For the eleventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products, which increased by 2.6% to 390K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +85.1% against 2012 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, rusks and toasted bread exports expanded rapidly to $1.1B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +69.1% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Italy (35K tons), Saudi Arabia (31K tons), the Netherlands (30K tons), Canada (30K tons), the United States (25K tons), Spain (17K tons), France (17K tons), the UK (17K tons), Poland (14K tons), Bangladesh (14K tons), Bulgaria (12K tons) and Russia (12K tons) represented roughly 65% of total exports in 2022. Portugal (10K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Canada (with a CAGR of +30.0%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Canada ($144M), Italy ($116M) and Saudi Arabia ($75M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 31% share of global exports. The Netherlands, the United States, Spain, France, Bulgaria, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Bangladesh and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

Poland, with a CAGR of +27.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average rusks and toasted bread export price stood at $2,732 per ton in 2022, rising by 3.3% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 6.5%. The global export price peaked at $2,877 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($4,871 per ton), while the UK ($1,231 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform