Roasted Malt Market

The global roasted malt market is projected to see growth in both consumption and market value over the next eight years. With an anticipated CAGR of +4.5%, the market volume is expected to reach 5.5M tons by 2030. In value terms, the market is forecasted to increase with a CAGR of +6.7%, reaching $5.6B by the end of 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of roasted malt, with South Africa showing significant growth in market size. Despite fluctuations in production and consumption, the overall trend is positive. Import and export prices are expected to continue growing, with diverse price ranges across different countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for roasted malt worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Roasted Malt

In 2022, the amount of roasted malt consumed worldwide expanded to 3.9M tons, growing by 3.7% on the previous year. Overall, the total consumption indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -0.2% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 3.9M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global roasted malt market value expanded modestly to $3.3B in 2022, surging by 5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +71.0% against 2016 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (579K tons) remains the largest roasted malt consuming country worldwide, accounting for 15% of total volume. Moreover, roasted malt consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (269K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (222K tons), with a 5.7% share.

In China, roasted malt consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +9.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+8.1% per year) and India (+8.5% per year).

In value terms, Japan ($488M), China ($326M) and the United States ($277M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 33% of the global market. India, Italy, Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Nigeria and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, South Africa, with a CAGR of +20.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of roasted malt per capita consumption in 2022 were South Africa (1,971 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (1,164 kg per 1000 persons) and Italy (1,125 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by South Africa (with a CAGR of +20.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Roasted Malt

In 2022, the amount of roasted malt produced worldwide expanded modestly to 3.6M tons, increasing by 2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -4.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 34%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 3.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, roasted malt production expanded slightly to $3.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded prominent growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 44%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $3.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (587K tons) remains the largest roasted malt producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 16% of total volume. Moreover, roasted malt production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (254K tons), twofold. India (220K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +5.1%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+8.1% per year) and India (+8.6% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Roasted Malt

In 2022, overseas purchases of roasted malt increased by 14% to 444K tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 513K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roasted malt imports skyrocketed to $317M in 2022. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at $357M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

South Africa represented the main importer of roasted malt in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 149K tons, which was near 34% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Cambodia (43K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (29K tons) and Panama (23K tons), together constituting a 22% share of total imports. The United States (18K tons), Mozambique (10K tons), Brazil (10K tons), Japan (9K tons), the Netherlands (8.4K tons), Germany (7.8K tons) and Russia (6.8K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +23.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Panama (+130.6%), Brazil (+52.3%), Mozambique (+44.7%), Cambodia (+19.0%), the Netherlands (+3.1%) and the United States (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Panama emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +130.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Germany (-1.2%), Russia (-1.6%), Taiwan (Chinese) (-4.9%) and Japan (-5.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of South Africa (+29 p.p.), Cambodia (+8 p.p.), Panama (+5.2 p.p.), Brazil (+2.3 p.p.) and Mozambique (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Japan (-1.6 p.p.) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-4.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($76M) constitutes the largest market for imported roasted malt worldwide, comprising 24% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Cambodia ($28M), with a 9% share of global imports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with an 8% share.

In South Africa, roasted malt imports expanded at an average annual rate of +22.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Cambodia (+24.7% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-1.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average roasted malt import price amounted to $716 per ton, surging by 9.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Brazil ($1,042 per ton), while South Africa ($514 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cambodia (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Roasted Malt

For the fourth year in a row, the global market recorded decline in overseas shipments of roasted malt, which decreased by -3.5% to 186K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a perceptible decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 45% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 300K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, roasted malt exports stood at $153M in 2022. Overall, exports recorded a perceptible descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $197M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from South Africa (29K tons), Germany (23K tons), Poland (21K tons), the UK (19K tons), Belgium (16K tons), Russia (12K tons), China (11K tons), the Netherlands (9.2K tons), France (7.7K tons), the Czech Republic (6.3K tons), Egypt (5.7K tons) and Australia (4.9K tons), together amounting to 88% of total export.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +43.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest roasted malt supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($24M), South Africa ($18M) and the UK ($18M), with a combined 39% share of global exports. Poland, Belgium, China, the Netherlands, Russia, France, Egypt, the Czech Republic and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 47%.

Among the main exporting countries, Egypt, with a CAGR of +44.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average roasted malt export price amounted to $822 per ton, rising by 10% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 21% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,058 per ton), while Russia ($547 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform