Roasted Coffee Substitutes Market

The global market for roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes is projected to experience growth in both volume and value over the next few years. Market performance is predicted to increase at a modest rate, with key trends in consumption, production, and pricing analyzed. Key exporting and importing countries are identified, with detailed information on growth rates and trends provided for each. Overall, the market is expected to see continued growth and stability in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $6.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Roasted Chicory And Other Roasted Coffee Substitutes

In 2022, the amount of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes consumed worldwide expanded slightly to 1.4M tons, surging by 2.8% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -4.6% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 1.4M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global roasted coffee substitutes market revenue expanded slightly to $5.3B in 2022, increasing by 2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $5.5B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (208K tons) remains the largest roasted coffee substitutes consuming country worldwide, accounting for 15% of total volume. Moreover, roasted coffee substitutes consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (82K tons), threefold. The United States (75K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +4.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+3.2% per year) and the United States (+3.4% per year).

In value terms, Japan ($390M), the United States ($358M) and Germany ($270M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 19% share of the global market. China, Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh, Italy, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +15.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of roasted coffee substitutes per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (562 kg per 1000 persons), Germany (453 kg per 1000 persons) and the UK (429 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +18.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Roasted Chicory And Other Roasted Coffee Substitutes

In 2022, the amount of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes produced worldwide totaled 1.4M tons, with an increase of 3.1% on the previous year. Overall, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -4.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 23% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 1.4M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, roasted coffee substitutes production stood at $5.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 25% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $5.5B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (208K tons), India (107K tons) and the United States (70K tons), together comprising 28% of global production. Japan, Pakistan, Russia, Germany, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia, Italy, the UK and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +26.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Roasted Chicory And Other Roasted Coffee Substitutes

In 2022, purchases abroad of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes decreased by -9.5% to 56K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 14%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 62K tons, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, roasted coffee substitutes imports rose modestly to $168M in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 11%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $177M. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of roasted coffee substitutes imports in 2022 were Russia (7.8K tons), South Africa (6.5K tons) and the United States (6K tons), together amounting to 36% of total import. Italy (3.8K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by South Korea (3.1K tons) and Germany (2.9K tons). All these countries together held approx. 17% share of total imports. Portugal (2.2K tons), Spain (1.9K tons), France (1.5K tons), China (1.4K tons), Belgium (1.3K tons), Poland (1.1K tons) and Peru (1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +30.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest roasted coffee substitutes importing markets worldwide were Germany ($18M), Italy ($14M) and Russia ($12M), with a combined 26% share of global imports. The United States, France, Spain, Portugal, China, South Korea, Belgium, Peru, South Africa and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

In terms of the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +32.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average roasted coffee substitutes import price stood at $2,973 per ton in 2022, surging by 16% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $3,278 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($6,156 per ton), while South Africa ($641 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Roasted Chicory And Other Roasted Coffee Substitutes

In 2022, shipments abroad of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes decreased by -3.2% to 55K tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 57K tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, roasted coffee substitutes exports skyrocketed to $173M in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

India represented the key exporter of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 25K tons, which was approx. 46% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Poland (5.8K tons) and Portugal (4.7K tons), together creating a 19% share of total exports. Belarus (1.6K tons), China (1.6K tons), France (1.6K tons), South Korea (1.5K tons), Thailand (1.4K tons), Japan (1.4K tons), Chile (1.3K tons), South Africa (1.2K tons), Russia (1.1K tons) and Germany (1K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from India increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, France (+1,550.7%), Japan (+44.5%), Belarus (+21.1%), Russia (+15.8%), Portugal (+15.2%) and Thailand (+5.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, France emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +1,550.7% from 2012-2022. Chile, South Africa and Poland experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, China (-5.2%), South Korea (-6.1%) and Germany (-16.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, Portugal, France, Belarus and Japan increased by +12, +5.9, +2.8, +2.4 and +2.4 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Poland ($29M), India ($27M) and Portugal ($23M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 45% of global exports. France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Chile, South Africa, Russia, Belarus and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Among the main exporting countries, France, with a CAGR of +1,745.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average roasted coffee substitutes export price stood at $3,124 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 25% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $3,213 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($9,640 per ton), while China ($990 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+11.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform