Refined Coconut Oil Market

The global market for refined coconut oil is projected to experience significant growth over the next eight years, with consumption trends on the rise. The United States leads in both consumption and production of refined coconut oil, with steady growth expected in the coming years. Imports and exports of refined coconut oil are also increasing, showcasing a strong demand for this product worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for refined coconut (copra) oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 35M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $76.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in consumption of refined coconut (copra) oil, which increased by 0.5% to 30M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 31M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global refined coconut oil market value totaled $54.7B in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the market value increased by 8.8% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $55.9B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (24M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of refined coconut oil consumption, comprising approx. 79% of total volume. Moreover, refined coconut oil consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (1.1M tons), more than tenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the United States was relatively modest.

In value terms, the United States ($37.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($1.3B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States was relatively modest.

In the United States, refined coconut oil per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022.

Production

World Production of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2022, approx. 30M tons of refined coconut (copra) oil were produced worldwide; leveling off at the previous year's figure. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.4%. Global production peaked at 31M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined coconut oil production amounted to $54.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 9.6%. Global production peaked at $56.2B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of refined coconut oil production was the United States (24M tons), accounting for 78% of total volume. Moreover, refined coconut oil production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (852K tons), more than tenfold.

In the United States, refined coconut oil production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+3.1% per year) and Indonesia (+1.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

Global refined coconut oil imports rose sharply to 1.3M tons in 2022, growing by 10% compared with the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when imports increased by 15% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, refined coconut oil imports soared to $2.6B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +108.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 64%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (333K tons), distantly followed by China (215K tons), Germany (78K tons) and Russia (66K tons) were the major importers of refined coconut (copra) oil, together generating 55% of total imports. South Korea (53K tons), Belgium (42K tons), Japan (39K tons), Malaysia (36K tons), Poland (31K tons), Turkey (28K tons), Italy (28K tons), Singapore (25K tons) and France (25K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +11.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($713M), China ($409M) and Germany ($157M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 48% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +15.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average refined coconut oil import price stood at $2,089 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a tangible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined coconut oil import price increased by +72.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 44% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in France ($2,188 per ton) and Italy ($2,146 per ton), while China ($1,903 per ton) and Singapore ($1,906 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2022, approx. 1.1M tons of refined coconut (copra) oil were exported worldwide; surging by 4.4% compared with 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when exports increased by 18% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1.1M tons in 2015; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, refined coconut oil exports surged to $2.2B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +88.6% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Indonesia (359K tons), the Philippines (263K tons) and the Netherlands (187K tons), together reaching 75% of total export. It was distantly followed by Malaysia (121K tons), mixing up an 11% share of total exports. The following exporters - the United States (20K tons), India (18K tons) and Germany (17K tons) - each amounted to a 5.1% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Philippines ($639M), Indonesia ($606M) and the Netherlands ($383M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 73% of global exports. Malaysia, the United States, India and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

Among the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +9.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average refined coconut oil export price stood at $2,075 per ton in 2022, growing by 12% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined coconut oil export price increased by +78.4% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 46% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,748 per ton), while Indonesia ($1,689 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+7.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform