Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium Market

The article discusses the anticipated growth in the global market for phosphorus, arsenic, and selenium from 2022 to 2030. Consumption is expected to increase, with the market volume projected to reach 441K tons by 2030. The market value is forecasted to rise to $3.6B by the end of 2030. The top consuming countries include China, India, and Germany. Production, imports, and exports are also examined, showing trends in different countries and average prices. Vietnam, Kazakhstan, and the Czech Republic are highlighted for their significant roles in production and exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for phosphorus, arsenic and selenium worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 441K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium, when its volume decreased by -9.2% to 350K tons. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 385K tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

The global phosphorus, arsenic and selenium market size stood at $2.4B in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $2.5B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (90K tons), India (49K tons) and Germany (37K tons), with a combined 50% share of global consumption. Japan, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Poland, Brazil, Russia, the Czech Republic, Italy, Taiwan (Chinese) and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +102.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest phosphorus, arsenic and selenium markets worldwide were Russia ($393M), China ($370M) and the Czech Republic ($314M), with a combined 45% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the Czech Republic, with a CAGR of +98.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium per capita consumption in 2022 were Kazakhstan (1,376 kg per 1000 persons), the Czech Republic (1,036 kg per 1000 persons) and Germany (445 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +102.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium

In 2022, production of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium increased by 1.3% to 368K tons, rising for the third consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, phosphorus, arsenic and selenium production stood at $1.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 0.8% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $2.5B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Vietnam (133K tons), Kazakhstan (98K tons) and China (94K tons), together accounting for 88% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +1.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium, when their volume decreased by -5.3% to 227K tons. Overall, total imports indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +52.4% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 240K tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, phosphorus, arsenic and selenium imports soared to $1.3B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +94.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

India (50K tons), Germany (34K tons), Japan (27K tons) and Poland (22K tons) represented roughly 59% of total imports in 2022. South Korea (14K tons) held a 6.1% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Brazil (5.3%), the United States (4.9%), the Czech Republic (4.9%) and Italy (4.5%).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +102.7%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($308M), Japan ($191M) and Germany ($159M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 49% of global imports. Poland, South Korea, Italy, the United States, Brazil and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Czech Republic, with a CAGR of +48.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average phosphorus, arsenic and selenium import price stood at $5,921 per ton in 2022, jumping by 66% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a mild decrease. Global import price peaked at $6,670 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($7,238 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($3,580 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan (+6.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Phosphorus, Arsenic And Selenium

In 2022, shipments abroad of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium increased by 12% to 245K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 28% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, phosphorus, arsenic and selenium exports soared to $1.3B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +81.0% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Vietnam (131K tons) represented the major exporter of phosphorus, arsenic and selenium, constituting 53% of total exports. Kazakhstan (71K tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by the United States (16K tons). All these countries together took approx. 36% share of total exports. Poland (9.3K tons), Russia (5K tons) and China (4.8K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +48.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Vietnam ($703M) remains the largest phosphorus, arsenic and selenium supplier worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kazakhstan ($271M), with a 21% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 5.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Vietnam stood at +17.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Kazakhstan (+3.8% per year) and the United States (-1.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average phosphorus, arsenic and selenium export price amounted to $5,148 per ton, surging by 28% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a noticeable decrease. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $6,431 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Vietnam ($5,375 per ton) and Poland ($5,101 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($3,795 per ton) and China ($4,344 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform