Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease Market

The global market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease is expected to see growth in both consumption volume and market value from 2022 to 2030. Russia leads in both consumption and production, with China and Germany being major importers and exporters. Prices are anticipated to continue increasing in the near future. Overall, the market is forecasted to expand steadily over the next eight years, driven by increasing demand worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for petroleum lubricating oil and grease worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $60.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

After two years of growth, consumption of petroleum lubricating oil and grease decreased by -3.3% to 14M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 15M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

The value of the market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease worldwide reduced to $42.4B in 2022, falling by -5.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $45.1B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Consumption By Country

Russia (4.7M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption, accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (1.5M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (1M tons), with a 7.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Russia stood at +6.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+3.2% per year) and the United States (-4.6% per year).

In value terms, Russia ($7.6B), the United States ($5B) and China ($3.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 39% share of the global market. Japan, India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 16%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +9.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of petroleum lubricating oil and grease per capita consumption was registered in Russia (33 kg per person), followed by Japan (3.4 kg per person), the UK (3.3 kg per person) and the United States (3.1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of petroleum lubricating oil and grease was estimated at 1.8 kg per person.

In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Japan (+3.8% per year) and the UK (+2.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

After two years of growth, production of petroleum lubricating oil and grease decreased by -3.3% to 14M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 15M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production dropped to $39.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 24%. Global production peaked at $42.8B in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

Russia (4.7M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of petroleum lubricating oil and grease production, accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (1.4M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (1.2M tons), with an 8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Russia amounted to +6.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+3.5% per year) and the United States (-4.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

In 2022, the amount of petroleum lubricating oil and grease imported worldwide declined to 1.2M tons, falling by -7.8% compared with 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 1.3M tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease imports stood at $5.3B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China (148K tons) and Germany (100K tons) represented roughly 20% of total imports in 2022. India (54K tons), France (53K tons), Canada (46K tons), Poland (39K tons), the Netherlands (39K tons), Italy (39K tons), Belgium (36K tons), Mexico (34K tons), Austria (30K tons), Vietnam (29K tons) and Turkey (28K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +8.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($701M), Germany ($418M) and Canada ($234M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 26% share of global imports. France, Mexico, Poland, Italy, India, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey, Vietnam and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +10.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for petroleum lubricating oil and grease amounted to $4,305 per ton, increasing by 9% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($5,570 per ton), while Austria ($2,703 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

In 2022, the amount of petroleum lubricating oil and grease exported worldwide declined to 1.2M tons, which is down by -8.1% compared with the year before. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 14%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 1.3M tons, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease exports shrank modestly to $5.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 21%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $5.4B, leveling off in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (268K tons), distantly followed by France (161K tons), the United States (127K tons), Belgium (94K tons), Japan (74K tons) and the Netherlands (70K tons) represented the major exporters of petroleum lubricating oil and grease, together creating 65% of total exports. The following exporters - China (42K tons), Italy (39K tons), the UK (38K tons), Singapore (35K tons), Spain (35K tons), the United Arab Emirates (28K tons) and Switzerland (26K tons) - together made up 20% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +15.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($1.3B), the United States ($737M) and France ($612M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 50% of global exports. Belgium, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, the UK, Switzerland, China, Italy, Spain and the United Arab Emirates lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

China, with a CAGR of +18.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for petroleum lubricating oil and grease amounted to $4,364 per ton, growing by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 9.3%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($5,802 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($1,175 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform