NPK Fertilizer Market

The article explores the forecasted growth of the global market for NPK fertilizers, with predictions of increased consumption and market value over the next eight years. It discusses the performance of the market, including trends in consumption, production, import, and export dynamics. Key insights are provided on the leading countries in terms of consumption, production, and trade, as well as notable trends in pricing and growth rates in the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 85M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $48.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2022, global npk fertilizer consumption reduced to 64M tons, waning by -6.3% against the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 68M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

The global NPK fertilizer market size fell modestly to $33B in 2022, declining by -2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $33.9B, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The United States (17M tons) remains the largest NPK fertilizer consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 26% of total volume. Moreover, NPK fertilizer consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (4.6M tons), fourfold. Russia (3.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in the United States totaled +7.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+21.3% per year) and Russia (+7.3% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($7.5B), Turkey ($3.8B) and Brazil ($1.4B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 39% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Brazil, with a CAGR of +21.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of NPK fertilizer per capita consumption in 2022 were Finland (496 kg per person), Ireland (278 kg per person) and Spain (51 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +20.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2022, global npk fertilizer production declined to 63M tons, falling by -6.7% against 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 32%. Global production peaked at 68M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer production reduced to $27.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 32% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $32.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (17M tons), Russia (8.4M tons) and Vietnam (3.5M tons), with a combined 45% share of global production. India, Indonesia, Finland, Norway, Spain, Morocco, Belgium, South Korea, Turkey and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +21.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2022, purchases abroad of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers decreased by -15.2% to 16M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 17% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 19M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer imports skyrocketed to $11.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +64.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 31% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (2.3M tons), followed by India (1.3M tons) represented the main importers of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, together creating 22% of total imports. China (698K tons), Ireland (613K tons), Thailand (544K tons), Spain (521K tons), Romania (482K tons), Poland (366K tons), Ukraine (356K tons), France (330K tons), Germany (329K tons), the UK (310K tons) and Denmark (280K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +20.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($1.5B), India ($912M) and China ($517M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 26% share of global imports. Thailand, Spain, Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Ireland, France, the UK, Germany and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Romania, with a CAGR of +23.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average NPK fertilizer import price stood at $699 per ton in 2022, surging by 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, NPK fertilizer import price increased by +94.5% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($803 per ton), while Denmark ($371 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

After three years of growth, overseas shipments of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers decreased by -17.2% to 15M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 20%. The global exports peaked at 18M tons in 2021, and then shrank significantly in the following year.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer exports skyrocketed to $11.1B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +75.3% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Russia was the key exporting country with an export of about 5M tons, which resulted at 33% of total exports. Norway (2.2M tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 15% share, followed by Belgium (8.4%) and Morocco (4.9%). The following exporters - China (635K tons), Poland (387K tons), the Netherlands (373K tons), Spain (369K tons), Finland (330K tons), the United States (300K tons), Vietnam (291K tons) and Germany (244K tons) - together made up 20% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to NPK fertilizer exports from Russia stood at +3.9%. At the same time, Morocco (+106.3%), China (+29.7%), Spain (+13.3%) and the United States (+12.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Morocco emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +106.3% from 2012-2022. Norway, Vietnam, Poland, Belgium and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Finland (-2.7%) and the Netherlands (-5.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Russia, Morocco, China and Spain increased by +6.7, +4.9, +3.9 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest NPK fertilizer supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($3.2B), Norway ($1.7B) and Finland ($835M), with a combined 51% share of global exports. Belgium, the Netherlands, Morocco, China, Spain, Poland, Germany, Vietnam and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Morocco, with a CAGR of +94.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average NPK fertilizer export price amounted to $740 per ton, increasing by 62% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, NPK fertilizer export price increased by +111.7% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($2,529 per ton), while the United States ($351 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Finland (+12.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform