Non-Wheat Flour Market

The non-wheat flour market is expected to continue growing over the next eight years, with a projected increase in consumption volume to 43M tons and market value to $44.3B by the end of 2030. China, the United States, and India are the top consumers and producers. Import and export volumes are also increasing, with prominent exporters including Mexico, Zambia, Thailand, the United States, and Germany. Prices are on the rise, with notable differences between countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for non-wheat flours worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 43M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $44.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Non-Wheat Flours

After two years of growth, consumption of non-wheat flours decreased by -5.3% to 39M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 9.7% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 42M tons, and then fell in the following year.

The global non-wheat flour market value contracted to $34.8B in 2022, dropping by -7.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $37.6B, and then declined in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (7.5M tons), the United States (5.2M tons) and India (2.7M tons), with a combined 39% share of global consumption. Russia, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($8.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($3.7B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the non-wheat flour market increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Japan (-0.6% per year) and the United States (+1.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of non-wheat flour per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (15 kg per person), Japan (9.7 kg per person) and Russia (9.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +3.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Non-Wheat Flours

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of non-wheat flours, when its volume decreased by -4.7% to 39M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 9.9%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 41M tons, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, non-wheat flour production contracted to $35.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 20%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $38.1B, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (7.4M tons), the United States (5M tons) and India (2.8M tons), with a combined 39% share of global production. Brazil, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +5.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Non-Wheat Flours

In 2022, purchases abroad of non-wheat flours decreased by -2.8% to 1.8M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, total imports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -5.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 1.9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, non-wheat flour imports rose notably to $1.4B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +87.5% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (292K tons), distantly followed by Spain (91K tons), Angola (87K tons) and Germany (82K tons) represented the main importers of non-wheat flours, together comprising 31% of total imports. Belgium (77K tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (74K tons), the Netherlands (58K tons), Canada (57K tons), France (55K tons), the UK (48K tons), Nigeria (43K tons), Honduras (40K tons) and China (38K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to non-wheat flour imports into the United States stood at +11.4%. At the same time, Nigeria (+61.5%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+14.3%), the UK (+9.7%), Belgium (+7.3%), China (+4.5%), Germany (+4.2%), Spain (+2.7%), Canada (+2.4%) and Honduras (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Nigeria emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +61.5% from 2012-2022. France and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Angola (-3.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+8.1 p.p.), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+2.5 p.p.) and Nigeria (+2.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the Netherlands and Angola saw its share reduced by -1.7% and -5.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($237M) constitutes the largest market for imported non-wheat flours worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Nigeria ($64M), with a 4.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Canada, with a 4.2% share.

In the United States, non-wheat flour imports expanded at an average annual rate of +12.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Nigeria (+76.4% per year) and Canada (+5.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average non-wheat flour import price stood at $775 per ton in 2022, growing by 15% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($1,487 per ton), while Angola ($273 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+9.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Non-Wheat Flours

In 2022, the amount of non-wheat flours exported worldwide amounted to 1.8M tons, picking up by 13% on the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 26%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, non-wheat flour exports surged to $1.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +61.8% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of non-wheat flours, namely Mexico, Zambia, Thailand, the United States, Germany, Italy, El Salvador, France, Myanmar, Belgium, Brazil and Colombia, represented more than two-thirds of total export. South Africa (52K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Zambia (with a CAGR of +52.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-wheat flour supplying countries worldwide were Thailand ($156M), Mexico ($142M) and the United States ($107M), with a combined 32% share of global exports. Italy, Germany, Zambia, Belgium, Colombia, El Salvador, France, Myanmar, Brazil and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.

Zambia, with a CAGR of +54.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average non-wheat flour export price amounted to $709 per ton, surging by 5.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a slight increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 an increase of 9.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,103 per ton), while Zambia ($348 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform