Nitrogenous Fertilizer Market

The global nitrogenous fertilizer market is expected to see continued growth in both volume and value over the next eight years. Consumption, production, imports, and exports are analyzed for key countries and products. Urea is the most consumed and produced type of nitrogenous fertilizer, while ammonium sulphate shows the fastest growth in exports. Prices are on the rise, with significant variations between product types and exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 360M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $154.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Nitrogenous Fertilizers (Mineral Or Chemical)

In 2022, the amount of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) consumed worldwide reached 314M tons, approximately mirroring 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 5.2%. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

The global nitrogenous fertilizer market size rose markedly to $124.4B in 2022, increasing by 5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, faced a abrupt slump. Global consumption peaked at $460.4B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (38M tons), India (36M tons) and the United States (33M tons), together comprising 34% of global consumption. Russia, Brazil, Iran, Canada, Pakistan, Indonesia, Japan, France, Ukraine and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Iran (with a CAGR of +16.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($14.8B), China ($13.2B) and the United States ($10.6B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 31% share of the global market. Brazil, Russia, Pakistan, Japan, Iran, France, Canada, Turkey, Indonesia and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

Iran, with a CAGR of +15.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of nitrogenous fertilizer per capita consumption in 2022 were Canada (231 kg per person), Russia (129 kg per person) and Ukraine (124 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Iran (with a CAGR of +14.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Urea (146M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 45% of total volume. Moreover, urea exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (54M tons), threefold. Ammonium sulphate (40M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 12% share.

For urea, consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+1.7% per year) and ammonium sulphate (+2.5% per year).

In value terms, urea ($61.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) ($23.5B). It was followed by nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c..

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of urea market amounted to +2.7%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+1.9% per year) and nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. (+4.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Nitrogenous Fertilizers (Mineral Or Chemical)

In 2022, after ten years of growth, there was decline in production of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical), when its volume decreased by -1.8% to 303M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 3.9% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 308M tons in 2021, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, nitrogenous fertilizer production fell to $105B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $116.8B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (53M tons), Russia (29M tons) and the United States (29M tons), together accounting for 37% of global production. India, Iran, Indonesia, Canada, Pakistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Netherlands and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

Urea (134M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 43% of total volume. Moreover, urea exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (54M tons), twofold. Ammonium sulphate (41M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 13% share.

For urea, production increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+1.4% per year) and ammonium sulphate (+2.3% per year).

In value terms, urea ($45.4B), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) ($24.5B) and nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. ($11B) were the products with the highest levels of production in 2022, with a combined 77% share of global production.

Nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c., with a CAGR of +3.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main produced products over the period under review, while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Nitrogenous Fertilizers (Mineral Or Chemical)

In 2022, overseas purchases of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) decreased by -3.6% to 101M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when imports increased by 8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 105M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogenous fertilizer imports skyrocketed to $62B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a strong expansion. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Brazil (14M tons), India (11M tons) and the United States (8.2M tons) represented roughly 33% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by France (5.3M tons), making up a 5.3% share of total imports. The following importers - Belgium (3.9M tons), Australia (3.5M tons), Germany (3.2M tons), Turkey (2.9M tons), the UK (2.8M tons), Thailand (2.2M tons), Canada (2.1M tons), Romania (1.7M tons) and Poland (1.7M tons) - together made up 24% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +22.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest nitrogenous fertilizer importing markets worldwide were India ($7.5B), Brazil ($7.3B) and the United States ($4.5B), with a combined 31% share of global imports. France, Australia, Turkey, Belgium, the UK, Germany, Thailand, Canada, Romania and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

Romania, with a CAGR of +29.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Urea represented the key type of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 65M tons, which was near 51% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by ammonium sulphate (22M tons), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (15M tons), mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution (11M tons), ammonium nitrate (8.2M tons) and nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. (6M tons), together creating a 49% share of total imports.

Imports of urea increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, ammonium sulphate (+8.2%), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+5.0%), nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. (+4.7%) and mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution (+4.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, ammonium sulphate emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.2% from 2012-2022. By contrast, ammonium nitrate (-1.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Ammonium sulphate (+5.2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while ammonium nitrate saw its share reduced by -5.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, urea ($38.9B) constitutes the largest type of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) imported worldwide, comprising 63% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by ammonium sulphate ($6.7B), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), with an 8.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of urea imports totaled +7.5%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: ammonium sulphate (+9.9% per year) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+6.2% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average nitrogenous fertilizer import price amounted to $616 per ton, jumping by 69% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw perceptible growth. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was urea ($599 per ton), while the price for ammonium sulphate ($301 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by urea (+3.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average nitrogenous fertilizer import price stood at $616 per ton in 2022, jumping by 69% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a temperate increase. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Turkey ($750 per ton) and Australia ($737 per ton), while Brazil ($531 per ton) and Belgium ($540 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+7.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Nitrogenous Fertilizers (Mineral Or Chemical)

In 2022, shipments abroad of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) decreased by -10.9% to 89M tons for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year rising trend. In general, exports, however, saw a mild expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 5.7%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 100M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, nitrogenous fertilizer exports surged to $52.7B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 67% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

China (15M tons) and Russia (11M tons) represented roughly 30% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Belgium (4.9M tons), the United States (4.3M tons), Saudi Arabia (4.1M tons) and the Netherlands (4.1M tons), together mixing up a 19% share of total exports. The following exporters - Oman (3.8M tons), Germany (3.2M tons), Algeria (3M tons), Nigeria (2.9M tons), Egypt (2.3M tons), Malaysia (2M tons) and Poland (1.8M tons) - together made up 21% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +42.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($6.9B), China ($4.9B) and Saudi Arabia ($3.3B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 29% of global exports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Algeria, the United States, Germany, Nigeria, Egypt, Oman, Malaysia and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +47.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Urea represented the key type of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 53M tons, which was near 46% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by ammonium sulphate (23M tons), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (14M tons), mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution (10M tons), ammonium nitrate (8.5M tons) and nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. (5.6M tons), together generating a 54% share of total exports.

Exports of urea increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, ammonium sulphate (+7.4%), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+3.7%), mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution (+3.1%) and nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, ammonium sulphate emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +7.4% from 2012-2022. By contrast, ammonium nitrate (-1.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of ammonium sulphate (+6.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of urea (-2.7 p.p.) and ammonium nitrate (-4.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, urea ($29.9B) remains the largest type of nitrogenous fertilizers (mineral or chemical) supplied worldwide, comprising 57% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by ammonium sulphate ($5.7B), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), with a 9.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of urea exports amounted to +5.8%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: ammonium sulphate (+8.5% per year) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (+6.1% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average nitrogenous fertilizer export price amounted to $590 per ton, picking up by 65% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate notable growth. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was urea ($565 per ton), while the average price for exports of ammonium sulphate ($249 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ammonium nitrate (+3.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average nitrogenous fertilizer export price amounted to $590 per ton, surging by 65% against the previous year. In general, the export price posted a noticeable expansion. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($832 per ton), while China ($317 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+11.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform