Nitrogen Market

The global nitrogen market is anticipated to continue its growth trend in consumption, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.4% by 2030. Market performance is projected to decelerate, expanding to 205B cubic meters by the end of 2030. In value terms, the market is expected to increase to $663.2B. The top consuming countries in 2022 were China, the United States, and India. Global production and exports also showed resilient growth patterns over the last decade. Belgium emerged as the largest nitrogen exporter, while the Netherlands led in per capita consumption rates. Overall, the global nitrogen market is poised for further growth in the immediate future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for nitrogen worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 205B cubic meters by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $663.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Nitrogen

In 2022, global consumption of nitrogen stood at 156B cubic meters, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021. In general, the total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -0.2% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 157B cubic meters in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global nitrogen market size expanded markedly to $475.3B in 2022, with an increase of 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $530B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (26B cubic meters), the United States (18B cubic meters) and India (10B cubic meters), with a combined 35% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +17.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($361.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($19.2B). It was followed by Ethiopia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Japan stood at +2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+11.2% per year) and Ethiopia (+4.6% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of nitrogen per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (285 cubic meters per person), followed by Russia (55 cubic meters per person), the United States (53 cubic meters per person) and France (53 cubic meters per person), while the world average per capita consumption of nitrogen was estimated at 20 cubic meters per person.

In the Netherlands, nitrogen per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +9.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+2.4% per year) and the United States (+16.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Nitrogen

In 2022, global nitrogen production totaled 157B cubic meters, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, the total production indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.4% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 157B cubic meters in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen production expanded markedly to $474.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $529.4B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (26B cubic meters), the United States (18B cubic meters) and India (10B cubic meters), together comprising 35% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +16.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Nitrogen

In 2022, global nitrogen imports amounted to 1.7B cubic meters, growing by 13% on the previous year. In general, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 25%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, nitrogen imports soared to $301M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The Netherlands represented the largest importing country with an import of about 605M cubic meters, which resulted at 35% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Germany (195M cubic meters), Canada (101M cubic meters) and Slovakia (84M cubic meters), together committing a 22% share of total imports. Belgium (56M cubic meters), the United States (47M cubic meters), France (42M cubic meters), Slovenia (40M cubic meters), Hungary (37M cubic meters), the Czech Republic (35M cubic meters), Switzerland (33M cubic meters), Malaysia (31M cubic meters) and Austria (28M cubic meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to nitrogen imports into the Netherlands stood at +1.6%. At the same time, Hungary (+23.3%), the United States (+19.6%), Slovakia (+8.5%), Switzerland (+7.8%), Slovenia (+2.9%), Malaysia (+2.3%) and Canada (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Hungary emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +23.3% from 2012-2022. Germany and Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Czech Republic (-3.1%), Austria (-4.8%) and France (-7.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the Netherlands, Slovakia, the United States and Hungary increased by +4.2, +2.6, +2.2 and +1.9 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($87M) constitutes the largest market for imported nitrogen worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($31M), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by Slovakia, with a 3.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the Netherlands stood at +9.7%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+2.3% per year) and Slovakia (+8.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average nitrogen import price stood at $0.2 per cubic meter in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the average import price increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $0.2 per cubic meter in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($0.2 per cubic meter), while the United States (less than $0.1 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+9.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Nitrogen

In 2022, approx. 2B cubic meters of nitrogen were exported worldwide; surging by 2% against 2021. Overall, total exports indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -1.0% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 34%. The global exports peaked at 2B cubic meters in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, nitrogen exports skyrocketed to $294M in 2022. In general, total exports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +71.4% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Belgium represented the key exporter of nitrogen in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 734M cubic meters, which was approx. 37% of total exports in 2022. Germany (184M cubic meters) held the second position in the ranking, followed by the United States (183M cubic meters) and France (119M cubic meters). All these countries together held approx. 25% share of total exports. Austria (81M cubic meters), the Netherlands (76M cubic meters), the Czech Republic (76M cubic meters), Poland (74M cubic meters), Sweden (34M cubic meters), Italy (33M cubic meters) and Switzerland (30M cubic meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Belgium was also the fastest-growing in terms of the nitrogen exports, with a CAGR of +17.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Austria (+10.5%), the United States (+8.7%), Sweden (+7.8%), Germany (+6.3%), Italy (+4.2%), the Netherlands (+3.2%), the Czech Republic (+1.7%), Poland (+1.4%) and France (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Switzerland (-4.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Belgium (+23 p.p.) and the United States (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, Switzerland and France saw its share reduced by -1.5%, -2.4%, -2.5%, -2.9% and -4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belgium ($74M) remains the largest nitrogen supplier worldwide, comprising 25% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($31M), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Belgium stood at +7.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+8.0% per year) and the United States (-0.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average nitrogen export price stood at $0.1 per cubic meter in 2022, growing by 33% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a mild decrease. The global export price peaked at $0.2 per cubic meter in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($0.4 per cubic meter), while Belgium ($0.1 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+6.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform