Lubricating Oil Additive Market

The global market for lubricating oil additives is poised for growth over the next eight years, with a projected increase in volume and value. Consumption, production, and exports are all expected to see positive trends, with the top consuming countries being China, the USA, and India. The market has shown resilience and consistent growth over the past decade, and is likely to continue on an upward trajectory. Overall, the lubricating oil additive market is set to expand globally, presenting opportunities for producers and importers in the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for additives for lubricating oils worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 15M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $57.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Additives For Lubricating Oils

In 2022, approx. 11M tons of additives for lubricating oils were consumed worldwide; surging by 1.8% on the previous year. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +66.5% against 2012 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global lubricating oil additive market value reached $35B in 2022, surging by 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (2M tons), the United States (1.3M tons) and India (909K tons), with a combined 39% share of global consumption. France, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Belgium, Ethiopia, South Korea and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for France (with a CAGR of +10.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($5.3B), the United States ($4.5B) and Japan ($2.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 36% share of the global market. India, France, Ethiopia, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, Germany, Belgium and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

Among the main consuming countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +11.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of lubricating oil additive per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (24 kg per person), followed by France (9.2 kg per person), Japan (4.5 kg per person) and South Korea (4.5 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lubricating oil additive was estimated at 1.4 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the lubricating oil additive per capita consumption in Belgium stood at -3.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+10.2% per year) and Japan (+3.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Additives For Lubricating Oils

Global lubricating oil additive production stood at 11M tons in 2022, with an increase of 2.2% compared with 2021. Overall, the total production indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 11M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lubricating oil additive production rose modestly to $33.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (2M tons), the United States (1.7M tons) and France (1.1M tons), together comprising 44% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Additives For Lubricating Oils

After two years of growth, purchases abroad of additives for lubricating oils decreased by -2.8% to 3.2M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 3.3M tons, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

In value terms, lubricating oil additive imports expanded remarkably to $12.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of lubricating oil additive imports in 2022 were Belgium (292K tons), China (278K tons), Singapore (217K tons), the United States (190K tons), the United Arab Emirates (185K tons), France (179K tons), Germany (176K tons), Italy (140K tons), Japan (108K tons), South Korea (107K tons), the Netherlands (94K tons) and Russia (86K tons), together amounting to 64% of total import. Brazil (79K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +12.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($1.1B), Belgium ($940M) and Germany ($839M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 23% of global imports. France, Singapore, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Italy, South Korea, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +13.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average lubricating oil additive import price stood at $3,981 per ton in 2022, increasing by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($4,761 per ton) and South Korea ($4,519 per ton), while Belgium ($3,224 per ton) and the United Arab Emirates ($3,592 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+2.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Additives For Lubricating Oils

In 2022, global lubricating oil additive exports contracted to 2.9M tons, shrinking by -2% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 9.3% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 3M tons, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, lubricating oil additive exports rose sharply to $11.7B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 15%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the three major exporters of additives for lubricating oils, namely France, the United States and Singapore, represented more than half of total export. Italy (302K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Belgium (233K tons) and China (206K tons). All these countries together held near 25% share of total exports. Germany (71K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Belgium (with a CAGR of +43.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lubricating oil additive supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($2.6B), France ($2.3B) and Singapore ($2.1B), together accounting for 60% of global exports. Italy, Belgium, China and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +37.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lubricating oil additive export price amounted to $3,964 per ton, jumping by 17% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($5,865 per ton), while China ($3,374 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform