Lead Market

The global lead market is projected to see an upward consumption trend over the next eight years, with market performance expected to accelerate. By 2030, the market volume is forecasted to reach 18M tons, while the market value is projected to increase to $42.5B. China remains the largest lead-consuming and producing country, with the United States and India also playing significant roles in the market. Import and export trends show fluctuations in volume and value, with key importing and exporting countries identified. Overall, the global lead market is expected to experience modest growth in consumption, production, imports, and exports over the analyzed period.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lead worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $42.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lead

In 2022, approx. 15M tons of lead were consumed worldwide; flattening at 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 15M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global lead market revenue reached $28.9B in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $30.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (5.5M tons) remains the largest lead consuming country worldwide, accounting for 37% of total volume. Moreover, lead consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.7M tons), threefold. India (645K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.3% share.

In China, lead consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.1% per year) and India (+0.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($11.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($3.1B). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+3.9% per year) and India (-0.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of lead per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (5.5 kg per person), Spain (5.3 kg per person) and the United States (5.1 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Lead

Global lead production reduced modestly to 15M tons in 2022, leveling off at 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 4.2%. Global production peaked at 15M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, lead production contracted slightly to $26.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $30.8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (5.6M tons) remains the largest lead producing country worldwide, accounting for 38% of total volume. Moreover, lead production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1.1M tons), fivefold. South Korea (789K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.4% share.

In China, lead production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.2% per year) and South Korea (+5.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lead

In 2022, the amount of lead imported worldwide declined slightly to 3.2M tons, approximately reflecting the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 3.3M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lead imports amounted to $7.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 35%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $7.9B. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (652K tons), distantly followed by India (258K tons), Vietnam (226K tons), Germany (214K tons), Turkey (198K tons), the Czech Republic (164K tons), South Korea (157K tons) and the UK (148K tons) were the main importers of lead, together committing 63% of total imports. Spain (102K tons), Italy (97K tons), Poland (68K tons), Brazil (68K tons) and Thailand (66K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Czech Republic (+10.2%), Vietnam (+8.1%), Turkey (+7.2%), Poland (+5.0%), Germany (+3.8%), India (+3.1%) and South Korea (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Czech Republic emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.2% from 2012-2022. Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Brazil (-1.1%), Spain (-1.8%), the UK (-2.4%) and Thailand (-3.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+6.6 p.p.), Vietnam (+3 p.p.), the Czech Republic (+2.7 p.p.) and Turkey (+2.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Thailand (-1.6 p.p.), Spain (-1.6 p.p.) and the UK (-2.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($1.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported lead worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($598M), with a 7.9% share of global imports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States totaled +7.5%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: India (+3.6% per year) and Vietnam (+9.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lead import price amounted to $2,366 per ton, standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 20% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $2,438 per ton in 2018; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the UK ($2,820 per ton) and Thailand ($2,564 per ton), while Spain ($1,964 per ton) and the United States ($2,249 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lead

Global lead exports dropped to 3M tons in 2022, which is down by -10.1% on the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 20%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 3.4M tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, lead exports contracted to $6.9B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 39%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $7.7B, and then declined in the following year.

Exports By Country

South Korea (336K tons), Australia (284K tons), India (194K tons), the UK (184K tons), Canada (176K tons), Belgium (137K tons), China (121K tons), Sweden (104K tons), Bulgaria (99K tons), Kazakhstan (92K tons), Malaysia (92K tons) and Poland (85K tons) represented roughly 63% of total exports in 2022. Mexico (77K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +37.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Korea ($789M), Australia ($669M) and India ($462M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 28% share of global exports. The UK, Canada, Belgium, China, Bulgaria, Poland, Sweden, Malaysia, Mexico and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +36.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average lead export price stood at $2,296 per ton in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 21%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $2,366 per ton. From 2018 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Poland ($2,547 per ton) and the UK ($2,488 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($1,844 per ton) and Sweden ($2,005 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform