Ethanol Market

The global ethanol market is projected to grow steadily, with forecasts showing an expected increase in both market volume and value. Countries like Brazil, the United States, and India are leading in both consumption and production of ethyl alcohol. Import and export trends in terms of volume and prices are also analyzed, with notable fluctuations being recorded throughout the period under review.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for ethyl alcohol worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 104B litres by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $85.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Ethyl Alcohol

In 2022, global ethanol consumption rose slightly to 86B litres, growing by 2.1% on the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 9.8%. Global consumption peaked at 87B litres in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global ethanol market revenue rose sharply to $61.1B in 2022, surging by 5.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the market value increased by 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (36B litres), the United States (24B litres) and India (2.9B litres), together comprising 74% of global consumption. Canada, Germany, Pakistan, France and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 11%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +21.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ethanol markets worldwide were the United States ($22.1B), Brazil ($17.2B) and Canada ($2.4B), together accounting for 68% of the global market. Germany, India, France, Pakistan and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 13%.

Among the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +21.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of ethanol per capita consumption was registered in Brazil (166 litres per person), followed by the United States (73 litres per person), Canada (61 litres per person) and France (25 litres per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ethanol was estimated at 11 litres per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the ethanol per capita consumption in Brazil amounted to +6.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-4.5% per year) and Canada (+1.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Ethyl Alcohol

In 2022, approx. 86B litres of ethyl alcohol were produced worldwide; increasing by 1.7% compared with 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 9.3% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 89B litres in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethanol production totaled $59.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 8.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (38B litres), the United States (32B litres) and Pakistan (2.8B litres), with a combined 84% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Ethyl Alcohol

In 2022, purchases abroad of ethyl alcohol was finally on the rise to reach 21B litres after three years of decline. Over the period under review, total imports indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, ethanol imports surged to $19.2B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +105.0% against 2015 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of ethanol imports in 2022 were Canada (2.6B litres), the Netherlands (2.6B litres), Germany (1.7B litres), China (1.4B litres), Japan (1B litres), the UK (1B litres), France (0.9B litres), the United States (0.8B litres), South Korea (0.7B litres), the Philippines (0.7B litres), India (0.7B litres) and Sweden (0.5B litres), together recording 71% of total import. Belgium (436M litres) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +53.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ethanol importing markets worldwide were Canada ($2.9B), the Netherlands ($2.8B) and Germany ($1.8B), with a combined 39% share of global imports. The UK, France, Japan, South Korea, the United States, the Philippines, Sweden, India, Belgium and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

India, with a CAGR of +23.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % (11B litres) represented the key type of ethyl alcohol, mixing up 72% of total imports. It was distantly followed by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (4.4B litres), mixing up a 28% share of total imports.

Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % (+4.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits saw its share reduced by -4.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % ($10.9B) constitutes the largest type of ethyl alcohol imported worldwide, comprising 71% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($4.4B), with a 29% share of global imports.

For undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % , imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average ethanol import price stood at $0.9 per litre in 2022, with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($1 per litre), while the price for undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % totaled $1 per litre.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by denatured ethyl alcohol (+1.7%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average ethanol import price amounted to $0.9 per litre, increasing by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 21%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($1.3 per litre), while China (less than $0.1 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Ethyl Alcohol

Global ethanol exports rose sharply to 21B litres in 2022, picking up by 11% on the previous year. In general, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 24%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 21B litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol exports surged to $18.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +107.1% against 2016 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (8.2B litres) represented the largest exporter of ethyl alcohol, comprising 39% of total exports. The Netherlands (2.7B litres) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 13% share, followed by Brazil (12%) and Pakistan (4.8%). Hungary (719M litres), France (661M litres), Belgium (637M litres), Germany (528M litres), Spain (378M litres) and South Africa (335M litres) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to ethanol exports from the United States stood at +7.7%. At the same time, Pakistan (+14.7%), the Netherlands (+13.3%), Hungary (+9.3%), Spain (+8.8%), Germany (+7.0%), South Africa (+5.2%) and Belgium (+3.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +14.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Brazil (-2.2%) and France (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United States, the Netherlands and Pakistan increased by +9.9, +7.1 and +2.9 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($6B) remains the largest ethanol supplier worldwide, comprising 33% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($2.8B), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by Brazil, with a 9.8% share.

In the United States, ethanol exports increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+14.3% per year) and Brazil (-2.1% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % (12B litres) was the major type of ethyl alcohol, constituting 75% of total exports. It was distantly followed by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (4.1B litres), comprising a 25% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % exports of stood at +3.3%. At the same time, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (+4.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.2% from 2012-2022. Denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % saw its share reduced by -1.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % ($11.2B) remains the largest type of ethyl alcohol supplied worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits ($3.4B), with a 24% share of global exports.

For undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % , exports increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Type

The average ethanol export price stood at $0.9 per litre in 2022, picking up by 20% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume more than 80 % ($0.9 per litre), while the average price for exports of denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits totaled $0.8 per litre.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by undenatured ethyl alcohol (+1.4%).

Export Prices By Country

The average ethanol export price stood at $0.9 per litre in 2022, rising by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($1.2 per litre), while Pakistan ($0.6 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform