Crude Soybean Oil Market

The global market for crude soybean oil is projected to continue its upward consumption trend, with market performance forecasted to expand with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030. Market volume is expected to reach 79M tons by the end of 2030, with a value projected to increase to $98.7B. Global consumption, production, imports, and exports trends from 2012 to 2022 are analyzed, with insights into key consuming, producing, importing, and exporting countries. Analysis of per capita consumption, growth rates, and price trends provides a comprehensive overview of the market landscape.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for crude soybean oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 79M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $98.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Crude Soybean Oil

Global crude soybean oil consumption declined slightly to 60M tons in 2022, waning by -2.7% against the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 62M tons in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

The global crude soybean oil market revenue declined to $64.8B in 2022, with a decrease of -8.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $70.6B, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (17M tons), the United States (11M tons) and Brazil (8.5M tons), together accounting for 60% of global consumption. India, Argentina, Bangladesh and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 18%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude soybean oil markets worldwide were China ($18.9B), the United States ($10.6B) and Brazil ($7.6B), together accounting for 57% of the global market. India, Argentina, Bangladesh and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 20%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +8.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of crude soybean oil per capita consumption was registered in Argentina (83 kg per person), followed by Brazil (39 kg per person), the United States (33 kg per person) and China (12 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of crude soybean oil was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the crude soybean oil per capita consumption in Argentina amounted to +2.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Brazil (+3.7% per year) and the United States (+2.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Crude Soybean Oil

In 2022, global production of crude soybean oil fell slightly to 61M tons, with a decrease of -2% on the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 8.4%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 62M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, crude soybean oil production shrank markedly to $59.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +17.0% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 60%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $73.7B, and then declined rapidly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (17M tons), the United States (12M tons) and Brazil (11M tons), together accounting for 64% of global production. Argentina, India and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +10.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Crude Soybean Oil

In 2022, purchases abroad of crude soybean oil decreased by -4.7% to 10M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 26% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 11M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, crude soybean oil imports skyrocketed to $15.2B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +103.0% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 54%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

India was the largest importer of crude soybean oil in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 3.8M tons, which was near 38% of total imports in 2022. Bangladesh (647K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 6.5% share, followed by Morocco (5.2%). The following importers - Algeria (423K tons), Peru (356K tons), China (332K tons), South Korea (332K tons), Colombia (248K tons), Nepal (216K tons), Poland (215K tons), Pakistan (211K tons), the Dominican Republic (189K tons) and Mozambique (171K tons) - together made up 27% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to crude soybean oil imports into India stood at +13.3%. At the same time, Pakistan (+16.5%), Mozambique (+14.9%), Poland (+13.7%), Nepal (+7.3%), the Dominican Republic (+4.0%), Morocco (+3.0%) and Colombia (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.5% from 2012-2022. Peru, South Korea and Algeria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Bangladesh (-1.6%) and China (-15.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+25 p.p.) and Pakistan (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Bangladesh (-2.6 p.p.) and China (-18.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($5.9B) constitutes the largest market for imported crude soybean oil worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Bangladesh ($947M), with a 6.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Morocco, with a 5.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in India stood at +15.7%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Bangladesh (+0.1% per year) and Morocco (+5.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average crude soybean oil import price amounted to $1,516 per ton, picking up by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw pronounced growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 58%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the Dominican Republic ($1,635 per ton) and South Korea ($1,632 per ton), while Poland ($1,343 per ton) and China ($1,390 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Dominican Republic (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Crude Soybean Oil

In 2022, shipments abroad of crude soybean oil decreased by -0.5% to 10M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when exports increased by 28% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 11M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude soybean oil exports skyrocketed to $15.2B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a tangible expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 57%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Argentina was the main exporter of crude soybean oil in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 4M tons, which was near 39% of total exports in 2022. Brazil (2.4M tons) held a 23% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (4.9%) and Bolivia (4.7%). The following exporters - Paraguay (371K tons), Spain (350K tons), Turkey (310K tons), the Netherlands (295K tons), Ukraine (229K tons), Russia (213K tons) and Italy (180K tons) - together made up 19% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +61.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude soybean oil supplying countries worldwide were Argentina ($5.9B), Brazil ($3.6B) and the United States ($769M), together accounting for 67% of global exports. Bolivia, Paraguay, Spain, Turkey, the Netherlands, Russia, Ukraine and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +63.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average crude soybean oil export price stood at $1,471 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 26% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a noticeable expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 63% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Italy ($1,560 per ton) and the United States ($1,515 per ton), while Ukraine ($1,277 per ton) and Paraguay ($1,438 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform