Coffee Substitutes Market

The global market for coffee substitutes containing coffee is projected to demonstrate steady growth over the next eight years, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.6% by 2030. In 2022, consumption increased by 2.8% to 1.7M tons, marking the fifth consecutive year of growth. The market value is expected to increase to $10.4B by 2030, with key consuming countries including China, Indonesia, and the United States. Production experienced a slight decline in 2022, while imports and exports surged, showcasing opportunities for market expansion and trade development. Timor-Leste emerges as a significant player in exports, dominating the market with a 41% share. Overall, the global coffee substitutes market is poised for expansion and presents potential for further growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for coffee substitutes containing coffee worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Coffee Substitutes Containing Coffee

In 2022, consumption of coffee substitutes containing coffee increased by 2.8% to 1.7M tons, rising for the fifth consecutive year after three years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global coffee substitutes market size shrank slightly to $7.8B in 2022, declining by -1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the market value increased by 9.9% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $8B in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (291K tons), Indonesia (175K tons) and the United States (136K tons), together accounting for 36% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +18.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest coffee substitutes markets worldwide were China ($1.2B), Russia ($711M) and the United States ($547M), with a combined 31% share of the global market. Japan, the UK, France, Indonesia, Brazil, Germany, India, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Among the main consuming countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +13.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of coffee substitutes per capita consumption in 2022 were Russia (748 kg per 1000 persons), Indonesia (628 kg per 1000 persons) and the UK (572 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +16.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Coffee Substitutes Containing Coffee

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was decline in production of coffee substitutes containing coffee, when its volume decreased by -1.8% to 1.5M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 1.6M tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, coffee substitutes production declined to $7.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 17%. Global production peaked at $7.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (291K tons) remains the largest coffee substitutes producing country worldwide, accounting for 19% of total volume. Moreover, coffee substitutes production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (138K tons), twofold. India (116K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +5.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.1% per year) and India (+4.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Coffee Substitutes Containing Coffee

In 2022, global coffee substitutes imports skyrocketed to 174K tons, jumping by 85% on 2021. Overall, imports enjoyed a remarkable increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 201% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, coffee substitutes imports skyrocketed to $207M in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +57.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 30% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

Indonesia dominates imports structure, recording 152K tons, which was near 87% of total imports in 2022. South Korea (3.3K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Indonesia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the coffee substitutes containing coffee imports, with a CAGR of +111.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, South Korea (+19.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Indonesia (+87 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Indonesia ($100M) constitutes the largest market for imported coffee substitutes containing coffee worldwide, comprising 48% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by South Korea ($2.1M), with a 1% share of global imports.

In Indonesia, coffee substitutes imports increased at an average annual rate of +80.5% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average coffee substitutes import price amounted to $1,186 per ton, dropping by -30.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a abrupt descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 9.3%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $4,962 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($655 per ton), while South Korea stood at $645 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (-10.8%).

Exports

World Exports of Coffee Substitutes Containing Coffee

Global coffee substitutes exports soared to 44K tons in 2022, with an increase of 19% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, exports showed a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 45%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, coffee substitutes exports soared to $215M in 2022. In general, total exports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +96.4% against 2019 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Timor-Leste was the largest exporting country with an export of around 18K tons, which accounted for 41% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Tanzania (7.5K tons), generating a 17% share of total exports. The United States (2K tons), Germany (1.4K tons), Kenya (1.4K tons), Indonesia (0.9K tons), Slovakia (0.8K tons), South Africa (0.8K tons), the Netherlands (0.8K tons), Saudi Arabia (0.7K tons), the Philippines (0.7K tons) and Vietnam (0.7K tons) held a little share of total exports.

Timor-Leste was also the fastest-growing in terms of the coffee substitutes containing coffee exports, with a CAGR of +49.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Philippines (+41.4%), Tanzania (+29.3%), Kenya (+29.2%), Germany (+27.8%) and Indonesia (+8.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, South Africa (-1.3%), Vietnam (-3.0%), Saudi Arabia (-3.8%), Slovakia (-5.5%) and the Netherlands (-9.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Timor-Leste (+39 p.p.), Tanzania (+15 p.p.), Kenya (+2.7 p.p.) and Germany (+2.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while South Africa, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Slovakia and the Netherlands saw its share reduced by -1.8%, -2.1%, -2.5%, -3%, -4.1% and -6.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Timor-Leste ($108M) remains the largest coffee substitutes supplier worldwide, comprising 50% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tanzania ($21M), with a 9.7% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 4% share.

In Timor-Leste, coffee substitutes exports increased at an average annual rate of +43.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tanzania (+34.5% per year) and the United States (+2.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average coffee substitutes export price stood at $4,898 per ton in 2022, growing by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $5,370 per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Slovakia ($7,620 per ton), while Germany ($699 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform