Cereal Germ Market

The article analyzes the global cereal germ market, predicting a CAGR of +4.8% in consumption and +6.3% in value from 2022 to 2030. China, the largest consumer and producer, leads the market, followed by Turkey as a major importer. Import and export trends, as well as price fluctuations, are also discussed in detail.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cereal germ worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 17M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $20.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cereal Germ

Global cereal germ consumption reached 12M tons in 2022, picking up by 2.8% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -9.3% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at 13M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global cereal germ market revenue rose markedly to $12.9B in 2022, with an increase of 6.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption enjoyed a prominent expansion. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $13.5B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (2.1M tons) remains the largest cereal germ consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 18% of total volume. Moreover, cereal germ consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (860K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (770K tons), with a 6.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +8.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+4.2% per year) and India (+8.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest cereal germ markets worldwide were China ($2.3B), Turkey ($1.2B) and Pakistan ($898M), with a combined 34% share of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +15.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cereal germ per capita consumption in 2022 were the UK (3.8 kg per person), South Korea (3.6 kg per person) and Japan (3.5 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +11.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cereal Germ

Global cereal germ production rose modestly to 12M tons in 2022, increasing by 2.7% against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the total production indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -8.9% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 13M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cereal germ production totaled $12.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production saw a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $13.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (2.1M tons) remains the largest cereal germ producing country worldwide, accounting for 18% of total volume. Moreover, cereal germ production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (831K tons), threefold. India (769K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.4% share.

In China, cereal germ production expanded at an average annual rate of +8.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+4.5% per year) and India (+8.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cereal Germ

In 2022, supplies from abroad of cereal germ increased by 2.8% to 437K tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, cereal germ imports skyrocketed to $282M in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +117.2% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 47% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Turkey (135K tons), distantly followed by Italy (81K tons), Belgium (69K tons), the United States (33K tons) and Germany (22K tons) were the main importers of cereal germ, together generating 78% of total imports. Hungary (17K tons), Canada (14K tons), Romania (12K tons), the Netherlands (8.6K tons) and France (7.6K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +27.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($93M) constitutes the largest market for imported cereal germ worldwide, comprising 33% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($46M), with a 16% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Turkey stood at +10.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+1.1% per year) and Belgium (-4.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average cereal germ import price stood at $644 per ton in 2022, jumping by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, cereal germ import price increased by +84.1% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 33%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($797 per ton), while Canada ($280 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cereal Germ

In 2022, shipments abroad of cereal germ decreased by -0.9% to 479K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 28% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 483K tons, leveling off in the following year.

In value terms, cereal germ exports skyrocketed to $278M in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +102.5% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 56% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of cereal germ, namely Uganda, France, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Russia, the Netherlands, Canada, Romania, Spain, Slovakia and Ukraine, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Uganda (with a CAGR of +63.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Austria ($30M), France ($29M) and Bulgaria ($29M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 32% share of global exports. Hungary, Canada, Russia, the Netherlands, Romania, Uganda, Spain, Slovakia and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 57%.

Uganda, with a CAGR of +65.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cereal germ export price amounted to $580 per ton, growing by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 22%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($797 per ton), while Uganda ($218 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+8.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform