Caviar (Salmon) And Caviar Substitutes Market

The article discusses the increasing global demand for caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes, forecasting a growth trend in market volumes and values from 2022 to 2030. Key consumption countries include Russia, China, and the United States, while Belarus stands out for its high per capita consumption. In terms of production, China, Russia, and the United States are leading the way. Import and export data show fluctuations in trade patterns over the years, with Belarus and China emerging as major exporters. The average import and export prices have also seen variations across countries, with Japan and Belarus having the highest and lowest prices respectively.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 194K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Caviar (Salmon) And Caviar Substitutes

Global caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes consumption declined slightly to 171K tons in 2022, with a decrease of -2.1% on the year before. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 190K tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The size of the market for caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes worldwide reduced to $2.4B in 2022, waning by -2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.7%. Global consumption peaked at $2.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Russia (31K tons), China (29K tons) and the United States (14K tons), together accounting for 43% of global consumption. India, Japan, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Belarus, Mexico and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +22.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes markets worldwide were Russia ($390M), China ($381M) and the United States ($320M), together comprising 45% of the global market. Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Belarus lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Belarus, with a CAGR of +20.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes per capita consumption in 2022 were Belarus (315 kg per 1000 persons), Russia (217 kg per 1000 persons) and South Korea (53 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +22.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Caviar (Salmon) And Caviar Substitutes

In 2022, approx. 161K tons of caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes were produced worldwide; leveling off at 2021. Overall, production saw a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 3.7%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 189K tons. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes production shrank to $2.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a slight setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $2.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (33K tons), Russia (19K tons) and the United States (13K tons), together comprising 41% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +4.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Caviar (Salmon) And Caviar Substitutes

In 2022, approx. 35K tons of caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes were imported worldwide; waning by -10.2% against the year before. Overall, total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -11.7% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 40K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes imports totaled $425M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

Russia was the major importing country with an import of about 14K tons, which finished at 39% of total imports. Japan (3.1K tons) took a 9% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Korea (8.7%) and France (6%). The following importers - Germany (1,516 tons), the United States (1,312 tons), the Netherlands (937 tons), Norway (781 tons), Spain (635 tons), Ukraine (569 tons) and Taiwan (Chinese) (556 tons) - together made up 18% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes imports into Russia stood at +21.4%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+41.7%), Norway (+19.5%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+11.4%), France (+7.9%), the United States (+5.1%), South Korea (+2.6%) and Spain (+2.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +41.7% from 2012-2022. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-2.2%) and Ukraine (-17.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+29 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.5 p.p.), Ukraine (+1.6 p.p.) and Norway (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of South Korea (-3.5 p.p.), Germany (-4.1 p.p.) and Japan (-11.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes importing markets worldwide were Russia ($63M), South Korea ($52M) and Japan ($33M), with a combined 35% share of global imports. France, Germany, the United States, Taiwan (Chinese), the Netherlands, Ukraine, Norway and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +39.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average import price for caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes stood at $12,160 per ton in 2022, growing by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 22%. Global import price peaked at $16,075 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($32,937 per ton), while Russia ($4,612 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+10.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Caviar (Salmon) And Caviar Substitutes

In 2022, the amount of caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes exported worldwide fell to 25K tons, dropping by -8.9% on the year before. Over the period under review, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 12%. The global exports peaked at 30K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes exports rose to $379M in 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed mild growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Belarus was the main exporter of caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes in the world, with the volume of exports recording 8.1K tons, which was near 32% of total exports in 2022. China (4.2K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 17% share, followed by Japan (8.4%), Germany (7.3%), Sweden (6.5%) and Russia (5.7%). The following exporters - the United States (773 tons), the Netherlands (768 tons), Denmark (599 tons), Kazakhstan (580 tons), Iceland (576 tons) and South Korea (400 tons) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +32.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($73M), Belarus ($63M) and China ($57M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 51% of global exports. Germany, Sweden, Russia, the Netherlands, Denmark, the United States, Iceland, Kazakhstan and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +38.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for caviar (salmon) and caviar substitutes amounted to $15,105 per ton, growing by 11% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 13% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($34,955 per ton), while Belarus ($7,718 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark (+6.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform