Apple Market

The global apple market is expected to see continued growth in consumption over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to expand with a CAGR of +1.9% in volume and +3.9% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 112M tons and $129.5B respectively. China leads in both consumption and production, with significant growth in per capita consumption. Production also increased by 2.2% in 2022, with China accounting for 50% of total production. Meanwhile, global imports and exports show fluctuations in volume and value, with Turkey and Iran displaying notable growth rates. Overall, the market is driven by rising demand worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for apples worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 112M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $129.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Apples

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in consumption of apples, which increased by 1.5% to 96M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global apple market size contracted modestly to $95.6B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the market value increased by 9.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $96.2B in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of apple consumption was China (47M tons), accounting for 49% of total volume. Moreover, apple consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (4.4M tons), more than tenfold. The United States (3.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Turkey (+4.6% per year) and the United States (+1.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($56.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($4.5B). It was followed by Turkey.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to +4.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+0.7% per year) and Turkey (+5.5% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of apple per capita consumption in 2022 were Poland (94 kg per person), Turkey (52 kg per person) and China (33 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +6.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Apples

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of apples, which increased by 2.2% to 96M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 4.6%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by tangible growth of the harvested area and a temperate expansion in yield figures.

In value terms, apple production declined modestly to $99.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $101.3B in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

China (48M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of apple production, accounting for 50% of total volume. Moreover, apple production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Turkey (4.8M tons), tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (4.4M tons), with a 4.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.1%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Turkey (+5.2% per year) and the United States (+0.8% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of apples was estimated at 20 tons per ha, with an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the yield increased by 10%. Over the period under review, the average apple yield reached the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of apples production worldwide shrank to 4.8M ha, almost unchanged from the year before. In general, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the harvested area increased by 1.8%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to apple production reached the maximum at 5.2M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Apples

In 2022, global imports of apples fell to 7.5M tons, with a decrease of -13.8% compared with the previous year. Overall, imports recorded a mild descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 9.7M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, apple imports declined to $7.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $8.1B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Imports By Country

Germany (541K tons), Russia (490K tons), India (392K tons), the UK (322K tons), Egypt (304K tons), the Netherlands (226K tons), Spain (225K tons), Vietnam (209K tons), Bangladesh (208K tons), Canada (201K tons), Thailand (182K tons) and Indonesia (181K tons) represented roughly 47% of total imports in 2022. Mexico (168K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +8.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($488M), the UK ($392M) and Egypt ($357M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 17% share of global imports. Russia, India, the Netherlands, Thailand, Vietnam, Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Bangladesh, with a CAGR of +13.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average apple import price stood at $962 per ton in 2022, growing by 2.6% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($1,387 per ton), while Russia ($646 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (+6.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Apples

Global apple exports shrank to 7.6M tons in 2022, which is down by -6.5% compared with 2021. In general, exports continue to indicate a slight shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when exports increased by 7.9%. The global exports peaked at 9.3M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, apple exports declined to $6.8B in 2022. Overall, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 12%. The global exports peaked at $7.8B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports By Country

Italy (871K tons), China (823K tons), Poland (733K tons), the United States (697K tons), South Africa (625K tons) and Chile (603K tons) represented roughly 57% of total exports in 2022. Turkey (380K tons) held a 5% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by France (4.5%). New Zealand (341K tons), Moldova (189K tons), Iran (187K tons), Belgium (166K tons) and the Netherlands (165K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +18.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest apple supplying countries worldwide were China ($1B), Italy ($917M) and the United States ($884M), together comprising 42% of global exports. Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, France, Poland, the Netherlands, Turkey, Moldova, Belgium and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +19.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average apple export price stood at $892 per ton in 2022, falling by -7.4% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded modest growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average export price increased by 12%. The global export price peaked at $963 per ton in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was New Zealand ($1,655 per ton), while Iran ($388 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Moldova (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform