Ammonium Nitrate Market

The global market for ammonium nitrate is projected to see continued growth in consumption, production, exports, and imports over the next decade. Russia leads the way in both consumption and production, with significant contributions from countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Bulgaria. Global market trends show increasing demand and rising prices, pointing towards a promising future for the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for ammonium nitrate worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 31M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2022, the amount of ammonium nitrate consumed worldwide expanded sharply to 26M tons, increasing by 5.2% against the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

The global ammonium nitrate market revenue stood at $10.7B in 2022, growing by 7.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

Russia (8.3M tons) remains the largest ammonium nitrate consuming country worldwide, accounting for 32% of total volume. Moreover, ammonium nitrate consumption in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Ukraine (1.8M tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Poland (1.4M tons), with a 5.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Russia stood at +5.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Ukraine (-0.0% per year) and Poland (+0.2% per year).

In value terms, Russia ($2.4B), Saudi Arabia ($2.2B) and Poland ($777M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 50% of the global market. Brazil, the UK, the United States, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, China, Canada, Uzbekistan and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

China, with a CAGR of +29.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of ammonium nitrate per capita consumption in 2022 were Russia (58 kg per person), Tunisia (50 kg per person) and Ukraine (40 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +31.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2022, the amount of ammonium nitrate produced worldwide reached 26M tons, surging by 3.9% compared with 2021 figures. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 6.6%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate production contracted to $10.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 26%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $10.8B, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

Russia (11M tons) remains the largest ammonium nitrate producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 43% of total volume. Moreover, ammonium nitrate production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Ukraine (1.6M tons), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Saudi Arabia (1.4M tons), with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Russia amounted to +3.2%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Ukraine (-4.4% per year) and Saudi Arabia (+1.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2022, purchases abroad of ammonium nitrate decreased by -1.6% to 8.2M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after three years of growth. Overall, imports recorded a slight reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 6.6%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 9.7M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate imports skyrocketed to $4.2B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +99.5% against 2020 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (745K tons), followed by Peru (401K tons) were the key importers of ammonium nitrate, together comprising 14% of total imports. The UK (369K tons), India (352K tons), Romania (352K tons), Kazakhstan (330K tons), the United States (316K tons), Canada (310K tons), Serbia (221K tons), Mongolia (220K tons), Lithuania (211K tons), Guatemala (209K tons) and France (195K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +19.3%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ammonium nitrate importing markets worldwide were Brazil ($337M), Peru ($259M) and Romania ($220M), with a combined 19% share of global imports.

Romania, with a CAGR of +24.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average ammonium nitrate import price stood at $509 per ton in 2022, growing by 50% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, ammonium nitrate import price increased by +103.8% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Peru ($647 per ton), while Guatemala ($231 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+6.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2022, the amount of ammonium nitrate exported worldwide declined to 8.5M tons, dropping by -4.7% against 2021 figures. In general, exports continue to indicate a slight descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 10%. The global exports peaked at 9.6M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate exports skyrocketed to $4.7B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +103.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 48%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Russia was the major exporter of ammonium nitrate in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 2.7M tons, which was approx. 32% of total exports in 2022. Bulgaria (732K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Lithuania (646K tons), Georgia (503K tons), the United States (476K tons) and Sweden (469K tons). All these countries together held near 33% share of total exports. Egypt (336K tons), Canada (209K tons), the UK (203K tons), South Africa (199K tons), Chile (199K tons), Saudi Arabia (179K tons) and Oman (172K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Russia decreased at an average annual rate of -1.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Oman (+48.8%), the UK (+18.3%), Bulgaria (+12.1%), Egypt (+11.2%), South Africa (+4.3%), Sweden (+4.2%), the United States (+3.6%), Lithuania (+2.6%) and Georgia (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Oman emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +48.8% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Chile (-2.8%), Canada (-5.5%) and Saudi Arabia (-10.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Bulgaria, Egypt, Lithuania, Sweden, the United States, Oman and the UK increased by +6.2, +2.7, +2.4, +2.3, +2.1, +2 and +2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($1.2B) remains the largest ammonium nitrate supplier worldwide, comprising 26% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Saudi Arabia ($455M), with a 9.6% share of global exports. It was followed by Bulgaria, with a 7.1% share.

In Russia, ammonium nitrate exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Saudi Arabia (+5.1% per year) and Bulgaria (+15.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average ammonium nitrate export price amounted to $556 per ton, growing by 44% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, ammonium nitrate export price increased by +93.8% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($2,537 per ton), while Canada ($303 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia (+18.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform