Aluminum Market

Global aluminum market is projected to see steady growth over the next eight years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Consumption volume is expected to reach 96M tons by 2030, with a market value of $260.1B. China leads in both consumption and production, with the United States and Germany following. Import and export volumes are also on the rise, with unwrought aluminium alloys and aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) being the most traded types. Average import and export prices have seen an increase year over year, indicating a positive outlook for the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for aluminum and alloys worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 96M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $260.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2022, approx. 71M tons of aluminum and alloys were consumed worldwide; dropping by -2.8% compared with the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 8.3% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 73M tons, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

The global aluminum market value reduced slightly to $174.9B in 2022, with a decrease of -4.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $182.7B, and then shrank in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (41M tons) remains the largest aluminum consuming country worldwide, accounting for 57% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.8M tons), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Germany (2.5M tons), with a 3.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +5.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+0.9% per year) and Germany (-0.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($91.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($14.7B). It was followed by Germany.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +5.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+3.4% per year) and Germany (+2.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of aluminum per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (30 kg per person), China (29 kg per person) and South Korea (24 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Aluminum and Alloys

After two years of growth, production of aluminum and alloys decreased by -3% to 74M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 8.8%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 76M tons, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

In value terms, aluminum production dropped markedly to $170.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +28.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 52%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $201.1B, and then declined notably in the following year.

Production By Country

China (39M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of aluminum production, accounting for 53% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Mozambique (3.9M tons), tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (3.7M tons), with a 5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +5.2%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Mozambique (+2.1% per year) and India (+8.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2022, purchases abroad of aluminum and alloys increased by 0.8% to 31M tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, aluminum imports surged to $97.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports recorded buoyant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 59% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (4.4M tons), followed by the Netherlands (2.8M tons), Germany (2.5M tons), Japan (2.5M tons), China (2.2M tons), Turkey (1.8M tons), South Korea (1.5M tons) and Italy (1.4M tons) represented the key importers of aluminum and alloys, together constituting 62% of total imports. The following importers - Malaysia (761K tons), Mexico (718K tons), Spain (698K tons), Poland (675K tons) and Thailand (661K tons) - each resulted at an 11% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +13.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest aluminum importing markets worldwide were the United States ($15B), the Netherlands ($9.5B) and Germany ($8.6B), together accounting for 34% of global imports.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +16.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, unwrought aluminium alloys (16M tons), followed by aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) (14M tons) were the largest types of aluminum and alloys, together achieving 100% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for unwrought aluminium alloys (with a CAGR of +4.3%).

In value terms, the largest types of imported aluminum and alloys were unwrought aluminium alloys ($53.9B) and aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($43.4B).

Among the main imported products, unwrought aluminium alloys, with a CAGR of +7.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review.

Import Prices By Type

The average aluminum import price stood at $3,141 per ton in 2022, jumping by 20% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, aluminum import price increased by +67.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 40% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was unwrought aluminium alloys ($3,268 per ton), while the price for aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) totaled $2,997 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by unwrought aluminium alloys (+3.2%).

Import Prices By Country

The average aluminum import price stood at $3,141 per ton in 2022, jumping by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, aluminum import price increased by +67.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 40% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($3,501 per ton), while Malaysia ($2,183 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in overseas shipments of aluminum and alloys, when their volume decreased by -0.1% to 33M tons. In general, total exports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +34.1% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 17%. The global exports peaked at 33M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, aluminum exports surged to $91.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 61% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Mozambique (3.8M tons), the United Arab Emirates (3M tons), Russia (3M tons), Canada (2.9M tons), the Netherlands (2.8M tons), India (2.4M tons), Malaysia (2.1M tons), Norway (1.4M tons), Australia (1.4M tons) and Bahrain (1.1M tons) represented roughly 72% of total exports in 2022. The following exporters - South Africa (590K tons), the United States (543K tons) and Germany (528K tons) - each resulted at a 5% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Mozambique (with a CAGR of +43.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest aluminum supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($10.1B), Canada ($9.3B) and Russia ($8.6B), together comprising 31% of global exports. The United Arab Emirates, India, Malaysia, Norway, Australia, Bahrain, the United States, Germany, Mozambique and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

Bahrain, with a CAGR of +41.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) (17M tons), followed by unwrought aluminium alloys (16M tons) represented the largest types of aluminum and alloys, together committing 100% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exported products, was attained by aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) (with a CAGR of +5.8%).

In value terms, the largest types of exported aluminum and alloys were unwrought aluminium alloys ($51.7B) and aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($42.9B).

Unwrought aluminium alloys, with a CAGR of +8.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exported products over the period under review.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average aluminum export price amounted to $2,748 per ton, jumping by 17% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 41% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was unwrought aluminium alloys ($3,166 per ton), while the average price for exports of aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) stood at $2,507 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by unwrought aluminium alloys (+2.9%).

Export Prices By Country

The average aluminum export price stood at $2,748 per ton in 2022, picking up by 17% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 41%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($3,616 per ton), while Mozambique ($434 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform